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Spoiler Alert: the results of the 2020-21 NBA Season
Some fans (like myself) loathe reading "
spoilers" for their favorite TV shows or movies. Others actively seek them out.
One of the best parts of being a sports fan is that it's
impossible to look ahead and know the outcome of the season. However, I happened to stumble upon a Sports Almanac and will divulge the results for you now. Of course, if you're prefer not to know what happens this year, skip this post and be surprised instead.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1)
Milwaukee Bucks : 50-22
With the news of Giannis Antetokounmpo's extensions serving as an early Christmas present, the Bucks roll into the year with good vibes and another dominant regular season run. Their new supporting takes some time to gel which leads to some more close games, but in turn that causes Giannis Antetokounmpo to play more minutes and put up better raw stats than ever (averaging 30 PPG for the first time in his career). Despite that, he's not a runaway MVP winner. Some voter fatigue and playoff backlash causes a split vote, with 5 different players receiving first-place voters. When the smoke clears and the dust settles, Giannis wins a close vote to snag his third consecutive MVP trophy.
(2)
Brooklyn Nets : 47-25
The Brooklyn Nets click together early, fueled by a healthy-looking Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. They race out to a 30-11 start to the regular season before taking their foot off the gas to help sustain their health. While that decision may help them in the long run, it costs Kevin Durant his early-season MVP buzz (similar to Kawhi Leonard's season in Toronto.) Still, the Nets enter the postseason with good vibes all around, which earns coach Steve Nash several laudatory media reports and nearly enables him to win Coach of the Year (he finishes second.)
(3)
Philadelphia 76ers : 46-26
Speaking of great press, new exec Daryl Morey receives plenty of glowing reviews himself after his tweaks to the roster work wonders. Thanks to the spacing of Seth Curry, Shake Milton, and surprise rookie Isaiah Joe, slashepasser Ben Simmons takes a leap up in efficiency, scoring a career-high 23 points a game and earning 2nd team All-NBA honors. Inside the locker room, it feels like there's a notable shift towards the roster being more of
his team than Joel Embiid's. Of course, the club knows they'll need both of them to dominant to make a Finals push.
(4)
Toronto Raptors : 45-27
Reigning Coach of the Year Nick Nurse doesn't get half as much recognition as he should for another strong year at the helm, helping the club to easily beat their Vegas oveunder of 41.5 wins. Still, there are cracks under the surface. Now at age 34/35, Kyle Lowry looks like he's lost a step and struggles to match his 36 minutes per game from the prior year. Although nothing is official yet, it looks like the team may have to say goodbye to Lowry at the end of the season as he enters free agency.
(5)
Miami Heat : 44-28
The Miami heat don't ride their momentum from the Finals trip into a top seed, partly due to some leaky defense on the perimeter. Frustrated, Pat Riley decides to make a power move and trade for Victor Oladipo. The fit doesn't click right away as the team retains a similar record, but the Heat still feel confident that they can turn up the volume when the playoffs roll around.
(6)
Boston Celtics : 43-29
After losing Gordon Hayward, the Boston Celtics' ascent up the Eastern Conference stagnates. For the first time, the media appears to turn on this likable coach and club, wondering if the team needs to make a dramatic trade to shake up the roster. Ultimately, they decide to hold on to Jaylen Brown and the core and take their chances in the playoffs with the current lineup.
(7)
Indiana Pacers : 38-34
The Indiana Pacers attempt to shift their playing style under new coach Nate Bjorkgren, but some up and down play leads them to make a move and (as mentioned) trade Victor Oladipo prior to his free agency. Afterwards, they play more minutes with PG Aaron Holiday and PG/SG Malcolm Brogdon in the same lineup, a look that leads to a faster paced offense more befitting of Bjorkgren's ultimate goal for the team. That said, the decision about the future of the Myles TurneDomatas Sabonis pairing looms in the background.
(8)
Atlanta Hawks : 35-37
All the moves the Atlanta Hawks made during the offseason pay off -- more or less -- as Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic give Trae Young some much needed help. A year after finishing 26th in total offense, the team leaps up into the top half of the league. Still, struggles on defense keep the team below .500 on the year and lead to a dogfight all year long for that 8th seed.
(9)
Washington Wizards : 34-38
New PG Russell Westbrook earns rave reviews from his teammates and from the press early on, as the club jumps out to a 12-8 record and a presumptive playoff spot thanks to a renewed effort and attitude. Ultimately, their poor defense (ranked 30th last season) and their young frontcourt lead to a few too many losses along the way and prevent them from clinching a playoff spot outright. Coach Scott Brooks is let go after the season in favor of Denver assistant Wes Unseld Jr.
(10)
Charlotte Hornets : 30-42
The Charlotte Hornets' maligned signing of Gordon Hayward doesn't look too bad (in year 1) as Hayward returns to near All-Star levels with averages of 18-6-5. Still, the youth on the roster cripples any chance of a true playoff finish. At the same time, the future looks brighter than before. LaMelo Ball wins a polarizing Rookie of the Year campaign with good raw stats (15-5-7) on bad efficiency, while R2 pick Vernon Carey flirts with All-Rookie team for a solid 11-7 first year as a scoring big off the bench.
(11)
Chicago Bulls : 28-44
One year after winning Coach of the Year for mixing the perfect cocktail in Oklahoma City, Billy Donovan doesn't find the same type of immediate success with the young pieces here in Chicago. Rookie Patrick Williams looks promising, but second year guard Coby White shows more inconsistency than expected in his sophomore campaign.
(12)
Orlando Magic : 28-44
Despite the losses of Jonathan Isaac (injury) and D.J. Augustin (free agency), coach Steve Clifford keeps his team in the playoff mix for the first few months of the season. But once the team stumbles during a 1-5 stretch, the front office decides to wave the white flag and trade Aaron Gordon. For them, the purposes are twofold: to give more opportunity to rookie PF Chuma Okeke, and to eye a higher draft pick in a strong class. With that rebuild in mind, the team decides to empower rookie PG Cole Anthony over the last few month, indicating that free agent Markelle Fultz may not be in their future plans after all.
(13)
Detroit Pistons : 25-47
Returning from injury, Blake Griffin flashes the All-NBA caliber talent that he displayed two years ago when he led the team to a 41-41 record. However, Griffin continues to miss time here and there, effectively ending the team's chances of being a true playoff contender. The limited spacing also reveals itself, as the team struggles mightily to score in the games Griffin misses (finishing 8-19 without him.)
(14)
New York Knicks : 24-48
Hard-charging coach Tom Thibodeau pushes the Knicks too much for them to garner the top spot in the NBA Draft, but they still manage to finish in the bottom 5. For all the early Rookie of the Year buzz for Obi Toppin, he fails to win the award due to Thibodeau overplaying Julius Randle and Toppin's own bad stats on defense.
(15)
Cleveland Cavaliers : 21-51
The undersized perimeter leads to an awful defense that leaves the Cavaliers among the worst in the league yet again. The team attempts to trade Kevin Love to a contender, but an injury complicates that timeline and leads to an offseason exit for the big man instead.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Los Angeles Clippers : 48-24
After their embarrassing flameout against Denver, the L.A. Clippers come back with a chip on their shoulder and an eagerness to change the narrative about them. Their regular season play remains similar (top 5 in offense and defense), but comes with more effort and chemistry as a unit. By the time the season ends, they've gotten right back to the level of the Lakers in terms of title odds (+270).
(2) Los Angeles Lakers : 47-25
Unlike their cross-town rival (or rather, same-stadium rival), the L.A. Lakers don't feel the need to drive hard in the regular season after winning the title. LeBron James drastically reduces his workload in the regular season, going from 34.6 minutes a night down to 33.5. In the process, the Lakers lose their grip on the # 1 seed and LeBron James' loses his argument for another MVP. But as the playoffs approach, they don't seem to mind at all; they're still the betting favorite to win the title in Vegas.
(3) Utah Jazz : 44-28
After a full year in the system, PG Mike Conley's struggles are behind him and he helps the team threaten for the # 1 seed. Returning big man Derrick Favors helps the depth and helps the defense return to the top 8 (after falling to 13th last year), and wing Royce O'Neale finally gets some credit for that as well, finishing on the All-Defense team.
(4) Denver Nuggets : 43-29
While the Utah Jazz thrive because of their defense, Denver disappoints because of a declining one. Michael Porter Jr. looks like a future All-Star with averages of 16.7 points per game, but his struggles on the other end (in contrast to Jerami Grant) lead the Nuggets to finish in the bottom half of the league on D and prevent them from the presumptive step up that many expect.
(5) Dallas Mavericks : 41-31
Luka Doncic and company look as good as ever, but their returns demand on expectations. Luka Doncic puts up MVP-caliber stats, but doesn't actually win it (losing to Giannis.) The historically good offense takes a dip as the team realizes how much they miss Seth Curry. In his place, Josh Richardson underwhelms for his second straight team.
(6) New Orleans Pelicans : 38-34
After getting a lot of flak and a lot of flab, Zion Williams looks rejuvenated early on and the hype about him returns quickly. New coach Stan Van Gundy settles on rotations faster than Alvin Gentry did, and trusts his former player J.J. Redick more than Gentry did as well. Redick and Steven Adams' veteran leadership helps the youngsters play hard and fast every night, leading to a playoff spot despite inconsistent shooting as a team. Van Gundy wins Coach of the Year for the unexpected playoff trip and high seed.
(7) Portland Trail Blazers : 37-35
Despite a lot of good will and public support (including a projected # 2 seed from ESPN's Bobby Marks), Portland looks like the same ol' Blazers again with strong offense and poor defense. The feel-good Carmelo Anthony storyline ends poorly. Coach Terry Stotts shelves Anthony towards the second half of the season (due to poor defensive numbers), leading Anthony to bristle and ultimately work out a buy-out with the team.
(8) Phoenix Suns : 37-35
The Phoenix Suns officially turn the corner and become a winning team. Still, there's a stark contrast between their play with Chris Paul and without Chris Paul. And unfortunately for them, Paul's not as healthy as he had been the year before for OKC. He ends up missing 24 games, during which the Suns go 10-14.
(9) Houston Rockets : 36-36
The Houston Rockets play hardball and push the Philadelphia 76ers for a James Harden-Ben Simmons trade, but Daryl Morey and the Rockets stonewall them (feeling no time crunch, given that their stars are both young and on long-term deals.) Fortunately for the Rockets, James Harden sucks it up, starts the year in a Rocket uniform, and immediately looks like an MVP contender again with his incredible workload and efficiency. Alas, his new backcourt mate John Wall doesn't look quite at the same level in his first year back. Wall's struggles hurt the team's ceiling, and ultimately cast a dark cloud over their future (with Wall owed over $40M in each of the next 3 years.) The Harden trade may have been avoided for now, but still looks likely in the offseason.
(10) Golden State Warriors : 34-38
Returning star Steph Curry flashes the talent that made him a two-time MVP for stretches, but minor injuries keep derailing the momentum he has for an MVP push and for a playoff push for the team. Draymond Green doesn't snap back to prime form as many Warriors fans had hoped, leaving some doubt about his future with the club. Fortunately, rookie C James Wiseman steadily improves and looks like a future stud. Unfortunately, it won't be good enough to help the team for this season.
(11) Sacramento Kings: 32-40
The bad buzz about the Sacramento Kings turns around as a healthy De'Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley III jumpstart an improvement from the year before. In fact, Bagley flirts with 20-10 averages, finishing just shy with 18.8 points per game. As a combo guard off the bench, Tyrese Haliburton is one of the most effective rookies in the class. Savvy analysts like Kevin Pelton push for him to win Rookie of the Year, but his limited minutes and counting stats leave him snubbed for the trophy.
(12) San Antonio Spurs : 31-41
The San Antonio Spurs get out to a strong 14-12 start thanks to an improved defense (and a lack of Bryn Forbes), leading many to campaign for Gregg Popovich as a potential Coach of the Year. Eventually the team lags behind in the crowded Western Conference and turns the reins over to the youngsters. DeMar DeRozan gets reduced time down the stretch as the team gets an extended look at Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell as the potential wings of the future.
(13) Minnesota Timberwolves : 29-43
Karl-Anthony Towns continues his blistering pace from three, but doubt lingers about the roster construction beyond that as the next best players (D'Angelo Russell, Anthony Edwards, and Malik Beasley) all look like scoring guards. Among them, Beasley appears to be the odd man out, leading to a trade to Orlando in a package that yields back Aaron Gordon. Gordon helps the team's defense, but not in time to make a playoff push for this particular year.
(14) Memphis Grizzlies : 27-45
After a disappointing start to the season, the Grizzlies see no rush to bring back Jaren Jackson Jr. for heavy minutes. Instead, they try to find the right supporting players for the long haul. To that end, PF Brandon Clarke confirms his strong rookie season was no fluke, setting himself up for starters' minutes next season (with the idea being that they'll shift Jaren Jackson to the center position full time as well.)
(15) Oklahoma City Thunder : 18-54
Sam Presti and new coach Mark Daigneault work in tandem to help secure a top lottery pick for the club. Thanks to newly expanded rosters, the Thunder team looks even more anonymous than the Hinkie Sixers by the end, playing the equivalent of G-Leaguers for the last few weeks of the season. While OKC lands the top slot going into the lottery, they end up with the # 3 pick and miss out on the chance to draft local product Cade Cunningham. Still, it may be a blessing in disguise, as other top prospects SG Jalen Green and C Evan Mobley project to be good complements to foundational piece Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS
PLAY-IN GAMES
The Charlotte Hornets earn some buzz (get it??) and some predictions that they'll knock off the Indiana Pacers, but the Pacers handle their business and win 1-0. Meanwhile, the 8th-9th series between Atlanta and Washington is a dogfight. Russell Westbrook helps the Wizards win Game 1 with a 23-9-11 line, but he goes an ugly 7-23 in the second game as the Hawks win out.
ROUND ONE
(1) Milwaukee vs. (8) Atlanta
Atlanta's momentum is short-lived, as Giannis Antetounkoumpo and company crush them like bugs, 4-1.
(2) Brooklyn vs. (7) Indiana
Indiana fights harder than expected and manages to tie the series 2-2, but Kyrie Irving has a massive game 5 (43 points) and helps lead to a 4-2 win.
(3) Philadelphia vs. (6) Boston
Forget tough series -- this is an all-out war. Doc Rivers battles against his old team, and has an ace up his sleeve in the mammoth Joel Embiid whose size causes fits for the Celtics. With better shooting around him this time, it's enough to knock off the Celts, 4-3.
(4) Toronto vs. (5) Miami
Another great R1 series goes to the wire in Game 7. The Raptors' length bothers Jimmy Butler inside, but Miami's shooters provide enough of a pop to pull it out, 4-3.
ROUND TWO
(1) Milwaukee vs. (5) Miami
Milwaukee needs to exercise their demons from last year, facing the time that knocked them off. This time around, Giannis is fully healthy and paired with a big-time playoff competitor in Jrue Holiday, who helps provide the difference as the Bucks win 4-2. At this point, many analysts feel like this will be "Giannis' year."
(2) Brooklyn vs. (3) Philadelphia
In another high-profile clash, coaches Steve Nash and Doc Rivers receive a lot of spotlight for their star-studded teams. Unfortunately, Rivers has no answer in the bank for Kevin Durant, who averages 34.8 points en route to a 4-2 victory.
ROUND THREE
(1) Milwaukee vs. (2) Brooklyn
All year long, it looks like Milwaukee may have shaken off their playoff troubles and finally achieved their destiny. However, after a 2-1 lead, the tide starts to turn. Jarrett Allen and Kevin Durant's length helps limit Giannis to a mediocre series, allowing the Nets to rattle off 3 straight wins and make the Finals.
WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS
PLAY-IN GAMES
A play-in series between former teammates James Harden and Chris Paul favors CP3 and his supporting cast, as the Suns officially cement their playoff spot. While Steph Curry and the Warriors haven't had a strong year, they manage to steal game 1 from Portland thanks to 6 threes from Curry. However, Damian Lillard and the Blazers crank it up a notch and squeak by in Game 2 to advance.
(1) L.A. Clippers vs. (8) Phoenix
Chris Paul gives his former team fits, but ultimately the Clippers pull out a slugfest, 4-2.
(2) L.A. Lakers vs. (7) Portland
A rematch of last year's R1 series goes in a similar direction, as the Lakers crush the Blazers 4-1. Anthony Davis averages 31-15, causing many to cite him as a top 3 player overall and future MVP.
(3) Utah vs. (6) New Orleans
The surging New Orleans Pelicans are a trendy pick for an upset, but the Utah Jazz continue to play the role of sleeper well, utilizing their defense and Donovan Mitchell's scoring (29.3 per game) to a comfortable 4-2 victory.
(4) Denver vs. (5) Dallas
Luka Doncic goes bananas against a soft Denver defense, logging 37-14-8 in Game 1 and 42 points in Game 3. However, Denver manages to get the job done in a 4-3 series. After the series, talk swirls about whether the Mavericks may need a third star to take the next jump. Mark Cuban spends the offseason on rosetta stone learning Greek.
ROUND TWO
(1) L.A. Clippers vs. (4) Denver
Another rematch from last year, but one that doesn't lead to a repeat outcome. The Clippers are extremely motivated to put the Nuggets away when they have the chance, turning a 3-1 lead into a 4-1 victory this time.
(2) L.A. Lakers vs. (3) Utah
The plucky Utah Jazz give the favored Lakers everything they can handle and even take a 2-1 lead in the series. However, some big performances from LeBron James (and some questionable officiating) help the Lakers rally back to win three in a row and secure the ballyhooed showdown against the Clippers.
ROUND THREE
(1) L.A. Clippers vs. (2) L.A. Lakers
A must-see TV rematch between Kawhi Leonard and LeBron James comes down to the "Others," as new Clippers' SG Luke Kennard plays much better than Lakers' shooters KCP and Kyle Kuzma. When the dust settles, the Clippers pull it out 4-2. After the series, the Lakers cite a lingering wrist injury to Anthony Davis as a potential reason why they didn't look 100%.
NBA FINALS
(2) Brooklyn Nets vs. (1) L.A. Clippers
The NBA world misses out on a KD-LeBron series (or a Kyrie-LeBron series, depending on your perspective), but we still get an awesome matchup with other superstars like Durant and Kawhi Leonard. Leonard and Paul George bother KD to some degree, but the Nets' backcourt of Kyrie Irving and Joe Harris keeps their offense moving nonetheless. Irving has a few signature games (37 in Game 2, 31-9 in Game 5) compared to a quieter Paul George (15.8 PPG in the series) and helps the BROOKLYN NETS win the NBA CHAMPIONSHIP in a 4-2 win. KD wins a close vote for Finals MVP, but Irving and coach Steve Nash get a lot of credit as well.
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The most lopsided postseason "rivalries" in the NBA (fair warning: lots of Lakers and Celtics)
The NBA has seen a lot of significant matchups throughout history. This is part of a series I've been doing that encompasses the MLB, NFL, and NHL as well. However, this will probably be the longest as the NBA has seen plenty of lopsided postseason rivalries in history. This is thanks in large part to the lack of parity in several decades, mostly the Lakers and Celtics.
I realized too late that I included division tiebreaker matchups as playoff series. This may have affected a few, but it does give you more to read I guess.
Without further ado, here goes:
Lakers over Nuggets (6-0): one of the main reasons why Denver has had a bad reputation of being first-round puppy chow and being the second-oldest franchise to never make the NBA Finals can be blamed on the Lakers (the Spurs too, more on that later). Denver has only won 7 postseason meetings with LA's premier team. They had chances to make the NBA finals in 1985 and 2009 but were curb-stomped by the Lakers. Ouch.
Celtics over Bulls (5-0): it is really unfortunate that MJ never had a chance to right the ship for the Bulls in this postseason matchup as they never met the Celtics in the postseason. The most stinging loss in the series for Chicago is probably their 2009 first round where they dropped 2 crucial OT games en route to a tough 7-game loss. Chicago was swept 3 out of 5 times in this matchup and most recently they blew a 2-0 lead to lose in 6 in the first round of 2017, though injuries played a major role in Chicago's collapse.
Celtics over Rockets (4-0): Houston has some pretty bad memories against Boston including getting two quick second-round exits in 1975 and 1980 (yes, they were in the same conference at one point) and getting denied 2 NBA titles in 1981 and 1986. Although outmatched, those NBA Finals still saw the Rockets put up a competitive fight only to lose to overall stronger teams. It was just too bad, but Houston did get its chance to shine in the 90s at least.
Celtics over Warriors (4-0): these playoff matchups took place in the 50s and 60s, and most of them were when the Warriors were still in Philadelphia. Boston was simply too strong of a team, although the Warriors came agonizingly close in the 1962 Eastern Division Finals only to lose on a Sam Jones game-winner with two seconds left in the decisive Game 7 (and the Celtics went on to win the Finals too, ouch). The Warriors did get a crack at Boston again in the 1964 Finals but they were quickly outgunned in 5 games.
Warriors over Rockets (4-0): one of the main reasons the Rockets haven't been able to advance very far under the leadership of James Harden can be blamed on the Warriors, as they've absolutely owned this playoff matchup. The worst came in the 2018 WCF when the Rockets blew a 3-2 series lead and missed 27 straight 3-pointers in the deciding Game 7 to lose what could've been a very winnable 101-92 decision in the end. Worse, the Dubs went on to win another NBA Finals that year.
Celtics over Royals (3-0): these playoff matchups are ancient as they took place in the very early days of the NBA (50s and 60s). Notably, these teams met in the Eastern Division Conference Finals two straight years from 1963-1964. The 1963 series was particularly exciting and saw the deciding game taken by Boston in an unreal 142-131 contest. Naturally, the Celtics won the title both years too.
Jazz over Clippers (3-0): the few years the Clippers made the playoffs in the 90s, the Jazz had their way with them in the first round. 1992 was especially rough as the Clippers almost came from 2-0 down only to drop the deciding Game 5 98-89 (Game 4 was notably played in Anaheim due to the riots). More recently, Lob City took another heartbreaking defeat in a 7-game First Round loss in 2017.
Suns over Warriors (3-0): the Warriors have historically been one of the runts of the Western Conference and usually played like one in the playoffs, and it showed against stronger teams like the Suns. Phoenix pulled off series wins over Golden State in the 1976 WCF, 1989 West semis, and 1994 first round. 1976 was especially painful as the Warriors blew a 3-2 lead, losing by 1 point in Game 6 and then dropping the decisive Game 7 at home, losing 94-86 and preventing a possible repeat title (Golden State won in 1975).
Heat over Nets (3-0): New Jersey and later Brooklyn just never stood a chance against those Miami teams led by D-Wade in 2005 and 2006 and later The Big 3 in 2014. Brooklyn only has two playoff wins against Miami in the 2006 East semis and the 2014 East semis. That 2014 series was notable in essentially driving a dagger in the superteam on crack that Brooklyn tried to pull off. The 2006 series win helped the Heat win the NBA title that year, and 2014 saw them back in the Finals.
Pistons over Pacers (3-0): as even as the regular-season matchup is (Indiana leads 101-97), Detroit has done far more winning in the postseason. Both their 1990 and 2004 NBA titles went through Indiana as did their march to the 2005 NBA Finals. 2004 was probably the hardest for Indiana as that was the ECF. Despite being the top seed, they were no match for Detroit's superb defense and were held to under 80 points for all but 1 game. Four of the six games in that matchup saw the winning team score less than 80 points, no team scored 90 points or more in that series, and the deciding Game 6 was an ugly 69-65 win. Worse for Indiana, they couldn't get Reggie Miller back to the Finals.
Warriors over Trail Blazers (3-0): these matchups all came in the late 2010s when Golden State was absolutely lighting up the league. Portland has been dominated in this matchup for a long time and has only one playoff win against the Warriors in these three matchups. As a Dub fan myself, I usually enjoy watching Damian Lillard play us since he's a hometown kid, but I feel bad that he's been smashed by his favorite team growing up.
Warriors over Pistons (3-0): these are some obscure matchups that took place primarily in the 70s where Golden State won over Detroit in the 1976 semis and the first round of 1977 (yes, Detroit and Golden State were in the same conference at one point). Most notably, however, the Warriors (then in Philly) got their second NBA title in 1956 over the Pistons (then in Fort Wayne), romping them in 5 close games.
Warriors over Hawks (3-0): these matchups all took place in the 60s, so they're very old. The most notable of the three is the 1964 and 1967 Conference Finals matchups. The Hawks came oh so close in 1964 only to drop the deciding Game 7 105-95. 1967 was also rough as home-court advantage finally failed St. Louis in a rough 112-107 loss in the deciding Game 6. At least the Warriors wound up losing both NBA Finals.
Knickerbockers over Cavaliers (3-0): you can blame the Patrick Ewing era for most of this, as his knicks romped over Cleveland in the 1995 and 1996 First Rounds. Yes, there was an era of Cleveland basketball before LeBron, but most of it was either terrible or highlighted by early playoff exits. New York was part of the reason why.
Cavaliers over Hawks (3-0): blame The King for this utter domination of a series. Not only has Atlanta lost every playoff matchup against Cleveland, they've been swept in all three of them. Atlanta finally made the ECF in 2015 as the 1-seed only to get completely blown out of the water by an honestly superior Cavs squad.
Cavaliers over Raptors (3-0): prior to Toronto winning it in 2019, they were puppy chow for LeBron and the Cavs from 2016-18. They actually put up a great fight in the 2016 ECF (their first Conference Finals in franchise history), evening the series at 2 after being down 2-0, but lost by 36 in Game 5 then 26 in the deciding Game 6. They got swept in 2017 and 2018, the latter of which came in spite of them being the 1-seed that year.
Cavaliers over Nets (3-0): the Nets simply weren't that strong of a team in the 90s and the Cavs made quick work of them in 1992 and 1993. The 1993 First Round matchup was pretty competitive but the Nets lost the decisive Game 5 99-89 in what would be Drazen Petrovic's final NBA game before his tragic death. More recently, LeBron rolled through New Jersey in the 2007 semis en route to his first NBA Finals appearance.
Lakers over Royals/Kings (10-1): no matter where the Royals/Kings franchise has been, they've always been easy pickings for the Lakers franchise. Their last playoff matchup, the 2002 WCF, was especially heartbreaking especially as some allegations that certain aspects of that series were rigged in favor of the Lakers came out (also, had Robert Horry's buzzer-beater when the Lakers were down 2 not happened, Sacramento wins the series). The Royals/Kings only postseason victory came in the 1951 Western Division Finals in 4 games en route to the franchise's only NBA title. So oddly enough, it's actually Sacramento that owns the longest active title drought.
Lakers over Warriors (6-1): don't let the 2010s fool you, the Warriors have been one of the NBA's inferior franchises for a very long time and were usually beaten into oblivion by their Southern California rivals. Throughout the 60s-90s, the Warriors could only claim the inaugural postseason meeting between the two: the 1967 Western Division Semifinals which San Francisco swept, a stepping stone to an NBA Finals appearance.
Bulls over Knickerbockers (6-1): this one was no contest, as MJ basically ate the Knicks for breakfast throughout his career. He's undefeated against them, as the Knicks would have to wait until his first retirement into baseball to finally get a postseason win over Chicago (on their sixth try...). That came in the 1994 East semis, and even then, it took seven games and a horrible foul call by Hue Hollins in Game 4 to give the Knicks free throws in the dying seconds to come back from 86-85 down, winning 87-86. MJ returned a few years later and once again destroyed the Knicks in the 1996 semis.
Celtics over Hawks (10-2): the Celtics owned the Hawks in the Finals when the latter was in St. Louis, then destroyed them in the first round and semis when the Hawks relocated to Atlanta. Although...the Hawks' only NBA title to date did come at the expense of Boston in 1958, a series St. Louis won in 6 games (also the last championship team to not feature an African American player, in fact, there was a whole controversy about why Bill Russell didn't play for the Hawks and it has in part to do with this). Atlanta later took the most recent playoff meeting between the two, a 6-game domination in the first round of 2016 that really wasn't that close.
Lakers over Nationals/76ers (5-1): all of these matchups were in the NBA Finals, and to put it lightly, let's just say LA has done a whole lotta more winning in this one. The Showtime Lakers got two of the wins while Kobe got another. Philadelphia's only win came courtesy of Dr. J and Moses Malone in the 1983 NBA Finals where Philadelphia gave Showtime a taste of its own medicine in an absolutely dominating sweep. It was also Philadelphia's last title and both Dr. J and Malone's only Finals win.
Knickerbockers over Bullets (5-1): the Knicks met the Bullets a whopping six straight years from 1969-1974, and led by the likes of Walt Frazier, the Knicks usually had a significant upper hand. Their 1970 and 1973 playoff series wins, in particular, helped propel the Knicks to their only 2 NBA championships to date. The only win by the Bullets in this matchup? The 1971 ECF (the Bullets were still in Baltimore at the time) which saw Baltimore win a close 93-91 matchup in New York in the deciding Game 7 after being down 2-0 and later 3-2 in the series (also, finally winning on the road).
Lakers over Trail Blazers (9-2): blame a lot of this on the Showtime Lakers and Kobe Bryant. Portland could've had deeper playoff runs certain years if they didn't keep on getting matched up with LA. 2000 probably still stings many Rip City fans, as Portland blew a late double-digit lead in the deciding Game 7 to once again drop the ball against the Lakers (oh yeah, they would go on to win the championship that year just to twist the knife some more). Portland's only two wins? The first came in the 1977 WCF in which Bill Walton obliterated Kareem en route to a sweep and the franchise's only NBA title to date. Portland could also claim a 4-game win in the 1992 First Round series en route to another NBA Finals appearance. Said series was famous for the decider having to be played in Vegas due to the infamous LA riots that year.
Lakers over Bulls (4-1): yes, there was a time these teams met regularly in the playoffs, and it was LA that came out on top throughout the 60s and 70s. However, this matchup is probably most famous for giving us the 1991 NBA Finals in which MJ and the Bulls put up a clinic against the Lakers in 5 games, giving the GOAT (yes, I'm saying that) his first of many NBA titles and all but ending the Showtime Lakers era.
Spurs over Grizzlies (4-1): this postseason matchup has not been fun for Memphis, who came in as the much weaker team all the time. Three of Memphis' four losses have been sweeps. Their only victory in this matchup was significant, however, as it was their first series win in franchise history and it's one of the few 8-vs-1 first-round upsets in NBA history. Zach Randolph had a monster series and the Grizzlies won all of their home games to move on.
Pistons over Bucks (4-1): Detroit romped over Milwaukee en route to their 1989 and 2004 NBA Finals victories. Additionally, Detroit won playoff matchups over the Bucks in 1976 and 2006. However, the Bucks were finally able to snatch a playoff series in this one, destroying the Pistons in a sweep in the 2019 First Round highlighted by The Greek Freak's 41 points in the deciding Game 4.
Cavaliers over Wizards (4-1): blame this one on LeBron. He took three straight playoff meetings over Washington from 2006-08 and was the reason why the Wizards were always first-round punching bags. The Cavs also got an additional 7-game series win over the Bullets (as they were then known) in the 1976 semis. Washington's only postseason series win in this matchup is a 1977 First Round matchup that Washington took in 3 games (notably, Game 2 was Nate Thurmond's final NBA game).
Celtics over Lakers (9-3): when you think of historical postseason domination, this is likely the series that comes to mind (at least it did for me). The Lakers were a punching bag for the Celtics in the Finals in the 50s and especially the 60s. They're the reason why Jerry West has just 1 NBA Finals win and Elgin Baylor never won a ring actually playing for the Lakers (LA did give him a ring for "honorary contributions", honestly a very kind gesture by the organization). The heartbreak continued in 1984, but Showtime finally won out in 1985 and 1987. More recently, the teams split the 2008 and 2010 Finals, with the Big 3 in Boston winning the former and Kobe getting his revenge in the latter.
Lakers over Pistons (9-3): whether in Fort Wayne or Detroit, LA has absolutely owned this matchup historically, although you can kind of blame the pre-70s matchups for that. Prior to 1989, all the Pistons organization could claim in this matchup was a 1955 Western Division Finals victory in 4 games en route to an NBA Finals appearance. Detroit then lost the 1988 Finals to the Showtime Lakers to go down 9-1 in this postseason matchup. But the Bad Boys got revenge in 1989, annihilating the Lakers in a sweep behind the likes of Isiah Thomas and Joe Dumars. Later, the Pistons upset Kobe and the Lakers in a 2004 Finals, wrecking them with solid defense over 5 games to claim their 3rd and last title to date.
Nationals/76ers over Knickerbockers (9-3): after winning both the 1951 and 1952 EDF over the Nationals (the former in 5, the latter in 4, unfortunately, the Knicks would lose both NBA Finals in 7 games), the 76ers have done far more winning in this series. Having Wilt and later Dr. J will help you out a ton. The most recent playoff matchup, however, saw the Knicks upend the Sixers in a First Round sweep in 1989 punctuated by Gerald Wilkins hitting the game-winner in OT with 6 seconds left in the deciding Game 3 to win the game for New York 116-115.
SuperSonics/Thunder over Rockets (6-2): I was actually a bit surprised to see this one. Seattle was simply too much for Houston to handle even when the Rockets had the likes of Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler. It took them their sixth try against Seattle to finally pull out a series win in 1997 West semis, and even then, it took 7 games and Seattle nearly came back from 3-1 down. When the Sonics relocated to OKC, Houston was thrashed in their 2013 First Round matchup but countered in 2017 as the Thunder without KD was no match. That series produced a hilarious moment in Andre Roberson getting fouled intentionally and even running away from Houston players to help his team not lose the game.
Spurs over Nuggets (5-2): the Nuggets have historically played awfully against San Antonio and it's shown in the postseason as well. Until last season, Denver could only claim a 3-2 first-round victory in the 1985 postseason (a series in which their offense scored 141 points in the opening game and was never held to under 111). More recently, the Nuggets won a hard-fought 7-game first-round series against the Spurs last postseason, pulling off a close 90-86 win in the decider to win their first postseason series in 10 years. They also notably won their first game in the Alamo City since 2012 in that matchup.
Celtics over Bucks (5-2): you can blame the 80s for Boston's generally superb performance over Milwaukee, as they took three out of the four playoff matchups in that decade. The only blemish was the 1983 semis in which Milwaukee famously swept the Celtics in Boston's first sweep since 1954 (read more about that sweep in the Celtics over Nationals/76ers section). More recently, Milwaukee crushed the living daylights out of Boston in the 2019 semis in 5 games in their deepest playoff run in years which unfortunately ended in the ECF.
Bulls over Cavaliers (5-2): long-time Cavs fans will likely get PTSD moments just hearing the name Michael Jordan, as he had some of his clutchest moments against the Cavs including The Shot and later The Shot II. Chicago also earned two sweeps in a row in 1992 and 1993. LeBron James helped right the ship just a little bit in the 2010 First Round (a dominant 5-game romp) and the 2015 semis (highlighted by a buzzer-beater by James in Game 4 and absolute destruction of the Bulls in the deciding Game 6, a 94-73 win), but there's still a little ways to go for Cleveland in this one.
Lakers over Spurs (8-4): the Showtime Lakers won the first four playoff matchups against San Antonio, but the Spurs started climbing back in the series with a 6-game win in the 1995 semifinals and a sweep in the 1999 semifinals over Kobe. The latter is notable for being a stepping stone to San Antonio's first NBA title. Kobe would have much more success against the Spurs in the 2000s, going 4-1 against them in that time with just the 2003 semis being the only blemish (a series that saw a Robert Horry shot almost win Game 5 and complete a comeback, San Antonio won a championship that year too). Most recently, San Antonio wrecked a disappointing and hobbled Lakers in the 2013 playoffs in a first-round sweep en route to the NBA Finals.
Lakers over Suns (8-4): the Lakers throughout the 70s and 80s were the far more dominant team and won the first 6 postseason matchups against Phoenix. The Suns, however, famously ended a string of 8 consecutive LA trips to the WCF by blasting the Lakers in 5 in the 1990 semifinals. Later, Phoenix survived a scare in the 1993 first round as the 8th-seeded Lakers went up 2-0 before Paul Westphal guaranteed the Suns would come back. They did in dramatic fashion as Dan Majerle tied Game 5 late and the Suns would go on to win in OT (Phoenix marched all the way to the Finals). Kobe Bryant, surprisingly, had just a 2-2 record against Phoenix as Steve Nash and Co were simply too much in the mid-2000s (Phoenix came back from 3-1 down in 2006 and destroyed LA in 5 in 2007), although his win in the 2010 series propelled the Lakers to their last NBA title to date.
Lakers over SuperSonics/Thunder (6-3): the Showtime Lakers and even the Lakers of the 90s had postseason field days against the Sonics, although it was actually Seattle that got the first two victories in this matchup: a 3-game victory in their 1978 First Round matchup that saw Seattle march all the way to the NBA Finals, and an exciting 5-game semifinals win en route to the franchise's only NBA title to date. Kobe Bryant owned a 2-1 postseason record over the franchise, winning in 1998 and 2011, but the franchise finally pulled off a series win against LA in 2012 as KD and Westbrook annihilated the Lakers in 5 games in the semifinals en route to an NBA Finals appearance.
76ers over Bucks (6-3): Milwaukee has taken more than its fair share of series losses to the Sixers, most recently a heartbreaking 7-game loss in the 2001 ECF. However, Milwaukee has still been competitive at times. A young Kareem led the Bucks to a dominant 5-game semis win in 1970 (which included a whopping 156-120 thrashing in Philly in Game 3). Later, the Bucks would win a tough 7-game semis matchup in 1986 with the go-ahead score in the deciding Game 7 actually coming from a Barkley goaltending (Milwaukee won 113-112). The last Milwaukee win came one year later in the 1987 First Round which Jack Sikma hit a fantastic game-winner in Game 3 and the Bucks romp to a 102-89 win in the deciding Game 5 in Dr. J's final game.
Hawks over Pistons (6-3): when the Hawks were in St. Louis, they absolutely dominated the Pistons in postseason play, losing just once in the 1956 East Finals as Fort Wayne became the first team to ever come back from a 2-0 deficit. Atlanta later took the 1986 First Round matchup, but Detroit countered with a dominant 5-game romp in the 1987 semis which saw Isiah Thomas hit the game-winner in Game 4 with 1 second left. The Pistons would later get a 5-game romp over Atlanta in the First Round of 1991, but Atlanta won the last two playoff series and that's where we stand.
Celtics over Nationals/Sixers (13-8): while not nearly as dominant as some of the other matchups on this list, it's still pretty much highlights just how dominant Boston was. The Nationals actually dominated the 50s of this matchup, sweeping the 1954 Eastern Division Semis in 2 games (after claiming a Round Robin victory earlier), taking the 1955 Conference Finals in 4 games en route to an NBA Finals win, and winning the 1956 semis in 3 games. However, it's been mostly Boston from here on out, though Philly famously stole the 1967 EDF in 5 (highlighted by Wilt's unofficial quadruple-double in Game 1 and Wilt's record-setting 41 rebound performance in Game 3) to disrupt Boston's dominant record of the 60s and score an NBA Finals berth. Philly also took a hard-fought 7-game 1977 semis matchup en route to the NBA Finals and dominant 5-game ECF in 1980 en route to another NBA Finals, and a nice 7-game series win in the 1982 ECF that saw the Sixers prevent another 3-1 comeback from Boston (they blew a 3-1 lead in the 1981 ECF) and famously got Celtics fans to cheer for them to beat LA in the deciding Game 7 (they didn't that year but would the following year, so the fans kinda got what they hoped for).
submitted by displacedindavis to nba [link] [comments]
bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis For December 17th and Review of December 16th
Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with the first of our daily basketball articles. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. This means there will be a ton of decent, or even great, plays that I am not on due to risk or other factors. That doesn’t mean you can’t love them though. Trust your research then trust your gut. Just because I currently have no interest in Harden against the Jazz doesn’t mean he can’t put up 80 points. It means that, to me, there’s more upside for the money elsewhere.
Also, since I am an older person, yngphnx will be stickying these posts daily and helping me out with the fancy layouts and formatting that I just don’t understand yet. Make sure to thank him for all the work he is doing with me behind the scenes.
Yesterday In Review: It was a typical small Sunday slate. That doesn’t mean there wasn’t money to be made! Let’s look at what I did:
Lineup- Lonzo Ball 5900 - 31.25 points - 5.3x
Delon Wright 3200 - 32 points - 10x
Kawhi Leonard 9000 - 52.5 points - 5.8x
Julius Randle 8100 - 38 points - 4.7x
Greg Monroe 3500 - 8.5 points - 2.4x
John Wall 9200 - 72.5 points - 7.9x
Luka Doncic 7300 - 49 points - 6.7x
Tomas Satoransky 3800 - 29 points - 7.6x
Total: 50000 - 319.75 pts - 6.395x
Entry Fees: $15 Winnings: $47 Daily ROI: +313%
Analysis- First thing to understand is Toronto was running incredibly thin. No Lowry. No VanVleet. No Siakam. That is on top of JoVal and Powell still being out. This left Toronto incredibly thin at the guard and at center. Delon and Kawhi were the first 2 people i locked in. Delon was going to be one of the only people getting run, at 3200, and he has a history of producing when given the minutes. Kawhi, additionally, was going to have to carry the team on his back. My original lineup used Lebron but, given the news, Kawhi seemed like an easier way to get similar points at a cheaper price.
The next lock was Randle. If you don’t know, or haven’t been paying attention, if Mirotic is out (which he was) Randle becomes a must play. He has regularly been between 50-60 points with Mirotic injured. It turns out he only hit 38, and not quite 5x value, but that is a play you have to make every single time. What’s more, if you look at DvP analysis, Miami is weakest against PF. Everything lined up, but, as you all know, quite often the perfect plays don’t pan out. This doesn’t mean it’s the wrong play, and it’s important to understand that. The right play, according to the math, and according to all the facts in front of you, is the smartest play you can make given all the information you have. Right or wrong in this regard does not hinge on success. If you play this slate 100 times, you play Randle 100x. 90 of those, he will get you 6x value at least.
Next, I wanted a piece of the highest projected game of the day, Wizards vs. Lakers. Checking DvP and looking at recent performance, the best way to attack the Wizards was at PG. Since I went down from Lebron to Kawhi, this made Lonzo the most obvious play. Additionally, with Satoransky playing SF, Oubre gone, Porter and Howard out, and Ariza not available yet, I had to choose between Wall and Beal. With the value that opened up from Toronto, I opted for Wall. Moreso, If you have watched the Wizards, Wall will occasionally let Satoransky run the point, essentially, when all 3 guards share the court. Also, with Austin Rivers gone, Sato was poised to eat up some additional usage. This made him a solid value play at 3800, given the minutes he would be seeing and the massive total.
This left me with 2 spots. Next, I really wanted to get Doncic in. Sacramento is weakest against PF, Doncic has been heating up, and Dallas would be playing at a much higher pace. Doncic should have been priced up at least 1000, but, since he wasn’t, i put him in.
This left me 3500 on the last spot. Looking at the value, I had to choose between OG and Monroe. I figured since OG was starting, he would see less usage since kawhi was going to have to take control. I also figured that, while Ibaka was good, if Denver went with Plumlee and Jokic, they might need Monroe to come in to provide a bigger body. Unfortunately, he quickly fouled twice and didn’t really get a chance when he got back in in the 3rd quarter.
The Daily Slate: Situations to take advantage of: - Blake Griffin vs MIL - the math says to attack the Bucks with PF. When that PF has the 14th highest usage rate in the NBA, he needs to be given heavy consideration. The only pause is that Giannis is an above average defender.
- Mike Conley vs GS - Similarly to Blake, the math says to attack the Warriors with PG. When that PG has the 26th highest usage rate in the NBA, he needs to be given heavy consideration. Especially with Draymond back and healthy, making life tougher on Gasol, Conley is going to have to shoulder a larger load. The pause here is a low vegas total (209.5) and the threat of a blowout (GS favored by 10.5). Regardless, the Grizzlies don’t get blown out, nor blow out, a lot of teams very often (though that 50 point win over the Warriors last year was awesome) so even if the game ends up with GS winning by 10, the odds are good it will be close through the duration giving Conley a good chance at normal minutes.
- Kings vs. Timberwolves - This game features a MASSIVE 231.5 OveUnder and a surprisingly close line of the Wolves only winning by 8. The Kings are attackable at any position, but the only 2 wolves in the top 50 in usage are KAT and Rose. Since getting Covington, the wolves have shored up their wing defense, and they are now easiest to attack at PF. With Bagley out, Bjelica got the start today and crushed it with 40 DK points. He has a great chance to do that again and somehow his price FELL 200 bucks since yesterday.
- The Zach LaVine injury - Last game, with Lavine out, Markannen stepped in and took some of the 40 shots per game LaVine left on the table (that’s a possible exaggeration) on his way to 41.75 DK points. Coincidentally, by FAR, the best way to attack the Thunder is with PF. Odds are very, very good this game blows out quickly, though. So be wary.
- Blazers vs. Clippers - This game has a high O/U of 219 and a spread of only 2. This should be a relatively fast paced game, with moderate defense, and the potential for both a higher score and overtime. One of the best ways to attack the Clippers is with PG, so Lillard, who has the 10th highest usage rate in the NBA, becomes someone to consider. Even better is that Dame, who was in the high 9000s and over 10k over the last few weeks, was dropped to 8500 for a tough matchup against the Raptors and DK forgot to put him all the way back up. Dame at 8800 is one of the most underpriced superstars on this slate. The only Clipper, on the other hand, that is in the top 50 in usage is LouWIll whose absence opens up his massive usage for people like Tobias Harris and Gallinari. One note- I recently learned that Montrezl’s usage and DK points/game go down precipitously when LouWIll is out. While his price is also cratering, he is someone i won’t play until he has shown he can turn it around.
Situations to avoid: - Jazz vs Rockets - While the Jazz D isn’t on par with their D in previous years (due, in part, to a noticeable increase in pace), it is still formidable. If Paul or Harden were out, i would have definite interest in the other one. With both of them in, for this matchup, I have no interest. Also I don’t want to play Capela against Gobert. The only piece in this game that the math points to is Donovan Mitchell, but he has been playing under his head. That being said, he’s taking the shots (he took 21 last game, though he only made 8). If he gets hot for a game, he will more than pay off his freefalling price tag, now sitting at 6800.
- Bulls vs. Thunder. While I do like Markannen today, and while PG and Russ are always viable threats to break a slate, when you only play one lineup, the Thunder are 13 point favorites, and the Bulls are missing their most prolific scorer, it makes more sense to find your points somewhere else. I WILL NOTE, on slates where value doesn’t open up I love taking my value from these games. If the Thunder are up 30 going into the 4th, Noel, Diallo, Harrison, RoLo and others have a chance to far exceed 3000-3500 price tags.
- Sixers vs. Spurs - Call me crazy, I just don’t like this spot for either team. Butler is back, which confuses things. So much so that this is one of two games that still don’t have Vegas totals. Additionally, the Sixers are on the 2nd night of a back-to-back. Will Butler play? I assume so, but we HAVE to assume he does. And if he does, he will play above average defense on DeRozan. Embiid will play incredible defense against LMA. And those are the 2 best bets for the Spurs to keep this game close. The best way to attack Philly is at PF where the Spurs are starting Davis Bertans. On the other side of the ball, the best way to attack the Spurs is at SF and Guards. This means the only play here i really like is Ben Simmons. But, given the price, there are better plays for the money. I wouldn’t tell you not to play him. I just wouldn’t, barring any breaking news (Butler and/or Embiid sitting)
- Grizzlies at Warriors - LOVE me some Conley today, but that is all i will even consider from this game. When everyone is healthy on GS it is too much of a roll of the dice. Additionally, I feel it spreads out the usage which decreases the potential ceiling you get from all 4 stars, decreasing your chance to win a tourney. Are there great spots? Sure. But not against the Molasses Grizzlies. Additionally this is the lowest projected game on the slate, and GS is favored by double digits, increasing the risk of a blowout.
Situations to monitor: - Milwaukee Injuries - Middleton and Brogdon missed their last game with injuries. We haven’t heard about their statuses for tonight. If they both miss, Giannis and Bledsoe are close to must plays. If they are both in, this becomes a much less appealing spot (though this still will be one of the better games on the slate in terms of overall production)
- Suns vs. Knicks - The Suns just acquired Austin Rivers and Kelly Oubre. We don’t know if they will be available and, if they are, how they will change the normal rotations the Suns use. Pay attention to the game, because the Suns beat writers are AWFUL and i wouldn’t trust any information they put out pregame. Additionally, the Knicks are on the second night of a back to back. Even though they were banged up, Burke, Frank Ntiliilinkinka (for now on, Frank N), and Lance Thomas played Sunday. Dotson, Trier, and Robinson were out. We don’t know who is playing tomorrow. We don’t know how the minutes will play out. We are going to have to check the news after shootaround and then before the game. IT SHOULD BE NOTED: this game has a healthy O/U of almost 220 and a spread of just 1.5 so there is a lot of good plays to be had here. There is just a lot more volatility then I like without concrete news.
So there we go. First article down, many more to go. I hope you all enjoyed it and learned something that will help you play today. If you have any questions, or any suggestions, please feel free to post a comment. If you strongly agree or disagree with any of my analysis, please feel free to say so. I love hearing both sides, and I especially love getting into discussions with folks who disagree with my thoughts. The marketplace of ideas makes us ALL better in the long run if we know how to parse information.
Best of luck today, everyone! Let’s all get rich together!
submitted by bathrobeDFS to dfsports [link] [comments]
Creating a Potentially Viable NBA Mid-Season Tournament. [OC]
I tried to make what I would think would be a viable mid-season tournament. Since the NBA seems really interested in doing one of these, it must address these three questions:
1.) Why would we want to do it? 2.) Why would the players want to play in it? 3.) What would be the incentive for teams to try? I will first establish what my tournament would be, then answer these three questions, and finally walk though a simulation on how this would go. My idea is to do a 30-team tournament that would start the week before All Star Weekend. In this simulation I am using the 2018-2019 season and using team's regular season standings at the All Star break this past year for seeding. I am making the assumption that the NBA will reduce the number of regular season games to accommodate a three week break in the middle of the season that will go like this...
Week 1: Mid-Season Tournament First Rounds Week 2: Mid-Season Tournament Final Rounds and All Star Break Week 3: Trade Deadline and week off for players The rules for my tournament are as follows (this tournament will only work if all 30 teams have G-League affiliates - a stated goal of the NBA anyway):
- Seeding is based on regular season record.
- This tournament will be open only to G-League Players, two-way contracts, and NBA players that have three years or less of service. G-League players can have more than 3 years of experience but will have to have played less than 10% of their parent team's regular season games.
- The winner of the tournament will receive the 15th overall pick that years draft. This will mean that 31 1st round picks will exist. The 15th overall pick will be in the lottery and have slightly higher odds of being a top-4 pick (~5% odds of moving up). This pick will be able eligible for trades.
- A financial incentive will be provided to the top-4 finishers in the tournament. The champions will receive $500k per player, 2nd place will receive $200k per player, and 3rd/4th place will receive $90k per player.
To answer the questions I posed above...
1.) Why would we want to do it?
Answer: This will be an opportunity to sell new tournament ad space. Young players will be showcased to the league. It will help legitimize G-League teams and make the G-League a real opportunity developmental league that teams will have incentive to focus on. Round 1 will rotate each year to North American cities that do not have an NBA team but may have potential for future NBA markets (Seattle, Las Vegas, Vancouver, Kansas City, Louisville, Mexico City, ect.). Round 2 will be held internationally and rotate through countries with NBA interest (ex. Bejing, China or Paris, France). This will help expand international interest and fan engagement.
2.) Why would the players want to play in it?
I can not think of a possible scenario where NBA veterans would want to play in any mid-season tournament. However, young stars who have not made much in their NBA contracts, and actually do have an incentive to help their team get better (by getting the 15th pick in the draft) will be more willing to try. G-League players will get to play under their affiliate team's banner, get experience with the coaching staff, and could earn a lot of money relative to what they make currently.
3.) What would be the incentive for teams to try?
I believe that this would be addressed by question 2, and the fact that there are team and financial incentives to win the tournament.
Below is my simulation with seeds for how this tournament could have went this past year. Reminder that lots of upsets will probably happen because "bad" teams oftentimes have better young talent. Here it goes:
Note 1: This kind of tourney would work great with 32 teams. As is the best remaining seed in "Round 2" will get to have a bye. No other byes are issued.
Note 2: For this year, I had Round 1 in Las Vegas, Nevada and Round 2 in Paris, France.
Note 3: Each round is re-seeded so the highest remaining seed becomes the #1 seed but I will keep original seeding in the formatting so that it makes more sense.
Round 1 (Las Vegas, Nevada) (Monday February 4th - Wednesday February 6th).
- Milwaukee Bucks (1) vs. Phoenix Suns (30) - Winner: Bucks (1)
- Golden State Warriors (2) vs. New York Knicks (29) - Winner: Warriors (2)
- Toronto Raptors (3) vs. Cleveland Cavilers (28) - Winner: Raptors (3)
- Denver Nuggets (4) vs. Chicago Bulls (27) - Winner: Nuggets (4)
- Indiana Pacers (5) vs. Atlanta Hawks (26) - Winner: Hawks (26)
- Oklahoma City Thunder (6) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (25) - Winner: Grizzlies (25)
- Boston Celtics (7) vs. Washington Wizards (24) - Winner: Celtics (7)
- Philadelphia 76ers (8) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (23) - Winner: 76ers (8)
- Portland Trailblazers (9) vs. Dallas Mavericks (22) - Winner: Mavericks (22)
- Houston Rockets (10) vs. Orlando Magic (21) - Winner: Magic (21)
- Utah Jazz (11) vs. Miami Heat (20) - Winner: Jazz (11)
- San Antonio Spurs (12) vs. Detroit Pistons (19) - Winner: Spurs (12)
- Los Angeles Clippers (13) vs. Charlotte Hornets (18) - Winner: Clippers (13)
- Sacramento Kings (14) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (17) - Winner: Kings (14)
- Brooklyn Nets (15) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (16) - Winner: Lakers (16)
Highest Seeds Remaining = Bucks (1), Warriors (2), Raptors (3), Nuggets (4), Celtics (7), 76ers (8), Jazz (11), Spurs (12), Clippers (13), Kings (14), Lakers (16), Magic (21), Mavericks (22), Grizzlies (25), Hawks (26)
Round 2 (Paris, France) (Saturday Feb. 9th and Sunday Feb. 10th) Note: Top seed remaining gets a bye.
Bye: Bucks (1)
- Warriors (2) vs. Hawks (26) - Winner: Hawks (26)
- Raptors (3) vs. Grizzlies (25) - Winner: Raptors (3)
- Nuggets (4) vs. Mavericks (22) - Winner: Mavericks (22)
- Celtics (7) vs. Magic (21) - Winner: Celtics (7)
- 76ers (8) vs. Lakers (16) - Winner: Lakers (16)
- Jazz (11) vs. Kings (14) - Winner: Kings (14)
- Spurs (12) vs. Clippers (13) - Winner: Spurs (12)
Highest Seeds Remaining: Bucks (1), Raptors (3), Celtics (7), Spurs (12), Kings (14), Lakers (16), Mavericks (22), Hawks (26)
Round 3 (Paris, France) (Monday Feb. 11th and Tuesday Feb. 12th)
- Bucks (1) vs. Hawks (26) - Winner: Hawks (26)
- Raptors (3) vs. Mavericks (22) - Winner: Mavericks (22)
- Celtics (7) vs. Lakers (16) - Winner: Celtics (7)
- Spurs (12) vs. Kings (14) - Winner: Kings (14)
Highest Seeds Remaining: Celtics (7), Kings (14), Mavericks (22), Hawks (26)
Semi-Finals (All Star Week: Charlotte, North Carolina) (Friday Feb. 15th)
- Celtics (7) vs. Hawks (26) - Winner: Celtics (7)
- Kings (14) vs. Mavericks (22) - Winner: Kings (14)
Championship (All Star Week: Charlotte, North Carolina) (Sunday Feb. 16th)
Celtics vs. Kings - Winner: Kings
Prizes (money might be higher if this takes off an gets a lot of ad revenue):
- Kings - $500k per player and the 15th overall pick in the 2019 NBA draft.
- Celtics - $200k per player
- Mavericks and Hawks - $90k per player
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bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for December 26th and Review of December 25th
Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you like this information, I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium.
Yesterday In Review: Lineup- Name | Price | DKP | Value | Proj Own | Real Own | Diff |
Dame Lillard | 7800 | 34.75 | 4.5x | 15% | 24.1% | 9.1% |
Harden | 10900 | 64.5 | 5.9x | 30% | 42.9% | 12.9%!! |
PJ Tucker | 4300 | 22.75 | 5.3x | 15% | 31.3% | 16.3%!! |
Kevon Looney | 3500 | 20.75 | 5.9x | 7.5% | 9.6% | 2.1% |
Ivica Zubac | 4400 | 39.75 | 9x | 22.5% | 32.8% | 10.3%1! |
Russ Westbrook | 10300 | 53.75 | 5.2x | 22.5% | 10.5% | 12%!! |
Kyle Korver | 3300 | 20.25 | 6.1x | 1% | 6.7% | 5.7% |
Ricky Rubio | 5400 | 31.25 | 5.8x | 20% | 44.5% | 24.5% |
Total | 44900 | 287.75 | 5.767x | | | |
Entry Fees: 25.25
Winnings: 44
Profit: $18.75
ROI: 74.2%
Analysis- This was a unique slate for a couple of reasons: First, the incredibly soft pricing. It made it a lot more possible to play a couple of the big guys without sacrificing that much. It also let you play a lineup with Harden, Simmons, Embiid, Morris, and Kyrie, which I got off eventually. Second, even with the soft pricing, there was no one projected at more than 35% ownership. This made it more possible to just pick whoever you liked with less regard for how much other people were also on him. Third, There was only one game at a time, for hours. For someone, like me, who didn’t start anyone until HOU/OKC, that gave us a couple extra hours to finalize our roster based on new information.
I knew I was going to play Harden today. That was not a question. He had no reason for being priced that low, and his projected ownership wasn’t high enough. Even if the projected ownership hadn’t been so wrong, I still would have been on Harden under 50% ownership.
The second player I locked in was Zubac. Once McGee was ruled out, I knew Zubac was a lock. As I stated yesterday, McGee was out for 2 games before Chandler got the illness that originally caused him to miss a game. In the first game, Chandler got the start. They decided, though, this did not work and they let Zubac start the 2nd game and let Chandler come off the bench. Given they liked this better, and Chandler was coming off an injury, I knew Zubac would be starting and still getting enough of a run to more than pay for a 4400 salary. I hope you weren't scared off by Chandler. Zubac should have also been at least 50% owned today.
The third/fourth players I locked in were Tucker and Looney. Both punts were underpriced for their recent production and opportunity. I also baked in the possibility of a blow out in the GS/LAL game, which would have given Looney, who could have gotten 20 DKP regardless, some extra run. This also allowed me the flexibility I needed to get a couple more of the stars I wanted.
When the noon games went off, I had a different lineup. I thought the 20% ownership on Giannis opened up lesser ownership on Russ. If Giannis had been 10% owned, I would have stayed with Kyrie/Simmons/Embiid. It turns out that, while my ownership instincts were right, and Westbrook had 38+ DKP in the first half, he left PG13 run the 2nd half and barely finished over 5x.
This led me to look at Dame Lillard. As I said in my analysis, Dame was probably the most incorrectly priced player on the slate. Down from a 10100 high, the 7800 is crazy for someone who could put up an easy 50 DKP in any close game. I was (and am still) convinced the ownership in POUTAH is going to be WAY under what it should be, so I wanted to take a chance at Dame at what could be a 7x spot. And that’s not a ceiling either.
I tried to get some combination of people I liked in the 4000 range, but the possibility of running Dame back with Rubio who, while I wasn’t really high on, was cheap enough and what I thought would be too low an ownership, again (assuming the ownership projections are right, which, pardon my cynicism, they rarely are). If Lillard gets hot, and this game features more points than people would expect (the Jazz play MUCH faster this year) it was too much upside to ignore. This left me with 3400. I had a couple of options, but the fact the they’ve been giving Korver more of a chance, because they like how he spreads out the floor, swung the pendulum to him for my last spot. While there’s still 2 minutes left in the 3rd quarter of the LAL/GS game, I am still confident in all 3 of the plays from this game, and all of their abilities to get to 7x tonight.
The Daily Slate: For those of you who didn’t read my Good Chalk/Bad Chalk article on yesterday’s slate, I did my best to talk about this quasi-metric I use to help me make decisions called Matchup Specific Ceiling. Since I think this is important and relevant to how I analyze things, I am going to cut and paste it today. In the future, if I need to reference this, I will present a direct link:
I want to talk about something before I get into the Durant situation. There is a quasi-metric I use I don’t think i’ve ever seen before that often helps me make decisions. I call it Matchup Specific Ceiling. I would say that the absolute highest a person can score, the General Ceiling, is a factor that doesn't account for any specific thing except "the most points a guy has scored." Even if this ceiling came on a day when the rest of his team was injured, he went against the worst defender in the league, at the highest pace, the "ceiling" never changes. Matchup Specific Ceiling attempts to use the matchup to find what the nightly ceiling for a person would be. My argument would be that, while we consider someone’s ceiling as a static number, there are any number of factors that can bring a potential ceiling down (much like someone’s normal projection is reduced.) I will say, off the bat, It’s really hard for me to explain this. I have been trying for the last few days to get out what I thought was an understandable reasoning but it’s been difficult. So, In order to explain what I mean by this, let’s take a look at Anthony Davis.
When people talk about Brow (and others) we mention his ceiling and his floor and his projections. All of these things are useful as a general tool, but much less useful as a slate specific guide. Brow’s “absolute floor” is, i’d say about 30 points. This season, in games he has played more than 25 minutes, Brow only has one game under 40 DKP, but that was 31 DKP in 38 minutes on Nov 5th at OKC. I’d say his ceiling is about 100 DKP since i’ve seen him put up 100 DKP and a couple 90 DKP performances last year. However, while a general guide, this doesn’t really tell us anything about his specific matchup, just that, if everything goes right, Brow is an unstoppable freak of a beast. With Matchup Specific Ceiling, I try to think about specific factors that can reduce general ceiling in a specific game environment. For example, let’s start his general ceiling at 100 DKP. If he is in a massive pace down matchup, I lower this. If he is going against an amazing defender, I will lower this. If the rest of the team is healthy and will take usage from him, I will lower this. If he’s playing with nagging injuries, I will lower this. If the game has a low O/U, i lower it. If the game is expected to blow out, I lower it. So while we can still expect a completely random 100 DKP from Brow at any point, if the Pelicans roster is completely healthy and he was going against, let’s say, the Molasses Grizzlies who are 1) the Slowest Team in the NBA and 2) Playing Gasol at Center, who is one of the NBA’s top Defenders, I might say his Matchup Specific Ceiling in this case is closer to 75-80. Still a high number, but significantly less than what his General Ceiling could be if all the factors line up correctly (like a beautiful NBA syzygy). Just like we might think his median projection would go from 60 DKP to 52 DKP in a difficult matchup, I have found that factoring in a Matchup Specific Ceiling will help the decision making process. I will say, as well, this is not a function of range. I would say the general range of Brow against Memphis is 40-65DKP, but his Matchup Specific Ceiling (the absolute highest I could see him going in this specific matchup) is 75-80. By the by, since the start of the 2017 season, Brow has played Memphis 4 times and gotten 55.25, 57, 43.5 and 57 DKP.
I think using Matchup Specific Ceiling is a good way of analyzing specific matchups in terms of production likelihood. If Brow was going against, say, the Hawks and Mirotic was out, I would still keep his ceiling close enough to 100 that I know he is an a smash spot and then we just have factor in price and ownership. Let's say, in general, if there aren't any real mitigating factors, a player has a 5% chance of reaching close to their ceiling in any given game (it is much lower, but we are going to use this for the example). If Brow has a Matchup Specific Ceiling of 80 instead of 100 due to a difficult matchup and other factors, the 5% chance of him reaching his general ceiling is going to be significantly reduced to under 1%. So let's use Matchup Specific Ceiling to weigh Brow against.. let's say PG13- someone who has a ceiling of 85 or so, but costs 1500-2000 less as well. If we assume Brow in a bad matchup and PG13 in a good matchup (one where his Matchup Specific Ceiling mirrors his general ceiling)- I have found that in this circumstance, Brow will 100% of the time feature a raw projection that is higher than PG13. Even if PG13 is in a better spot. Even if PG13 has a legitimate shot of outscoring Brow half of the time if this were run 100 times. However, if we consider the Matchup Specific Ceiling, we see 2 things- One, The reduction in Brow's Matchup Specific Ceiling means that PG13 and him have functionally identical ceilings THAT DAY (or, if we take it to the extremes, PG13's can be higher). Two, the odds of PG13 hitting his General Ceiling is significantly higher than Brow's. Again, if you just look at raw points, you would think that Brow is going to outscore PG13 100% of the time, because 100% of the time he is projected to. But if, in a specific matchup, PG13 has a 5% chance of hitting his 85 DKP ceiling, and Brow has a >1% chance of hitting his Matchup Specific Ceiling of 80-85 DKP, it's PG13 that should have a projection advantage that remains unaccounted for.
I bring this up now because I think it’s extremely relevant for how I (and most people) think about the Warriors. What I would call a “lowered Matchup Specific Ceiling” for the Warriors players is also called “too many cooks.” You have seen plenty of analysts talk about how, if Curry is injured you should play Durant and Green, or vice versa in any number of combinations. That is because when you have the 4th, 12th, and 37th highest usage players in the NBA all starting for you, they are all going to eat into each other. USAGE AND PRODUCTION IN THE NBA ARE A ZERO SUM GAMEThere are only a finite number of possessions in a game. The more possessions you can take advantage of, the more DKP you can score (obviously) That is why pace is so important- the higher the pace, the more possessions everyone gets, and the more chances your players will get to score something. Again, though, each and every one of these possessions is a zero sum game. What this means is that, If someone else gets those points, I do not. There are X number of points that can get gained for every possession, and Y number of possessions you get in a game. There is no font from which Warriors players can draw DKP ad infinitum. There are no untimed innings where your team can score as many runs as the pitcher will allow. They are limited by, not only the quality of their own play, but by the quality of the other 3 (and soon to be 4) all stars around them. This means for every 3 that Klay makes, at most Curry, Durant, and Green can get points for 1 assist and there is one less potential possession for them to increase their scores. Every time Curry runs down the court and chucks a 3 from halfcourt, that is points that Durant, Klay, and Dray will never get. In this way, while a Curry or Durant may have GENERAL ceilings of 80-90 DKP, when everyone is healthy it dramatically reduces their matchup specific ceiling before even considering other game factors.
Matchup Specific Ceiling is something I think we all naturally consider when we look at a game, a player, an environment, and a price in deciding what we want. I think that by making it something we can consciously factor in, it may help the maths we are already doing and help us make better picks. Even if this is something that isn’t new, I hope this explains what I mean by Matchup Specific Ceiling when I use it now and in the future, and I hope it gives you a new way to think about your players.
Now we have a neat 10 game slate to look at, so let’s get down to business.
Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order): - John “Paul” Wall and the Wizards - This is the first game I am looking at, so either the soft pricing from Xmas has carried over, or every wizard except for Beal is underpriced. Wall, who was 9800 3 games ago has fallen to 8600. Detroit is, by far, weakest against PG. Wall has the 19th highest usage rate in the NBA. He will be matched up with Reggie Jackson who is 80th out of 99 in DRPM for PGs. I say 80th out of 99, but the only starters worse than him are Wall himself, LaVine, Sexton, and Trae Young. Otto Porter has already been ruled out. Ariza is in the middle of “operation: run ariza into the ground” and his price just fell 200 to 5400. Markieff is getting run every day and he’s only 4500. He hits 25-30 DKP a lot. Even the punts have fallen, with bit players like Satoransky down to 3700. Not that he’s the strongest play, but he will be seeing enough backup minutes, and has enough usage, 3700 isn’t too hard to pay off.
- The Pistons - The Wizards are so, so bad at D. At pretty much every position. They don’t guard the 3 point line. The Pistons are in a really nice pace up spot. The O/U is over 220 (221) and the spread is only DET -5. While there are so many good spots on this slate, i wouldn’t recommend this, but it’s certainly possible that Blake and Drummond stacked with Wall could lock you in to a ton of points where other people will be spending up. I also want to point this out- Here is the pricing for the Pistons- Drummond is 9200, Blake is 9000, R Jax is 5400, Bullock is 4700, Johnson and Brown are 3500. That’s right, there are only 4 players above 3500. Even DK and Vegas expect most of the production to come from those 2 in this matchup
- Vucevic - I can already tell you the hardest decision you are going to have to make today is what Center(s) are you going to play. It might be foolish not to play 2 on DK. If you play sites like FD where you can only play 1 C, i really don’t envy you this evening. Ayton is a great rookie. I would be surprised if he wasn’t a perennial all-star in the future. But right now, he can’t even come close to hanging with Vuc. Vuc will play up to 37 minutes or so in close contests. On November 30, Vucevic helped the Magic blow these Suns out, he only needed 32 minutes to put up 25 real points on 11-20 shooting with 15 rebounds. He also had 1 block, which I think is closer to his floor in a matchup against this team with Booker healthy. His price was recently over 9k. 8900 is still a lot, but Vuc has a matchup specific ceiling of 75-85 DKP tonight and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he gets you a relatively effortless 60 DKP.
- Devin Booker - As much as I like Vuc, it should be noted before I start talking about Booker, this game has a concerning O/U of 209.5 between the teams 21st and 27th in pace. As great a spot as Booker is in, I would only really consider him if you are the type of player who likes to “run back” your other play. If you are going to play Vuc, I would get Booker in there. ORL is a decent defense. They are basically at or better than average at every position according to DvP. However, the numbers say that, if anything, they can be attacked at SG and SF, which tells us they are probably weak against the perimeter. Also, DJ Augustin is not a good defender. What this tells me is that, no matter what, Booker is going to be in a matchup they can let him take advantage of. If Melton is running point, which will be for a majority of his minutes, he is in the best position possible against this D. If he runs the point, and they let him run iso, ooh nelly. He is fairly priced at 8500 for someone that can put up 50 DKP in this matchup if the game stays close. Again, I doubt I will be on him but, if i DO wind up on Vuc, I will also wind up here and won’t feel badly about it at all.
- Kemba/Cody ZelleD’Angelo Russell/Joe Harris - I have told the story of why I am a Nets fan. If you sat me down a year ago and said, “bathrobe.. I want you to picture a game where the Nets play the Hornets in the future. The Hornets have one of the best PGs in the game, with top 10 usage. The Hornets are also playing at the 14th highest pace in the game. The game total is 221 and the Nets are projected to win by 2. How far in the future are you?” I would have said, maybe, 2021? If we were lucky? And yet, here we sit, on Boxing Day of 2018 in this exact situation. On the 15th, Kemba was up to 9300. That game blew out and he only played 25 min, causing his price to fall to 8400 immediately. It still hasn’t sufficiently rebounded and still sits at 8400 a week later. This game is supposed to stay close, and, if it does, it will be on the back of Kemba and, since they are playing the Nets, whoever is at Center. In that circumstance, the play is Cody Zeller (if you think this game blows out, pivot down to Hernangomez). People who only check game logs will see Zeller, who was priced 5300 one week ago, has shit the bed recently, with 8.75, 15, and 18.5 DKP performances. But 2 of those games were over early enough, Zeller only got 20 and 21 minutes (and played against people who can actually defend the C position). The other also devolved into a blowout and Zeller missed out on minutes that may have pushed him over 5x value. The game before that ALSO blew out, but it was against the pathetic C defense of the Lakers. Zeller got only 20 minutes, but provided 26.75 DKP. And the last close game the Hornets played, on 12/14 against the Knicks, Zeller put up 48.25 DKP in 37 minutes. Seriously, I can’t stress this enough, the first thing you should do on any slate is see if the Nets are playing and, if they are, check the Center they will be going against and his price and then just lock him in anyway. The league average is 53.3 DK PPG to the Center position. The only 2 teams allowing over 60 are the Suns at 62.6 (Hello Vuc) and the Nets at 64.3. C’mon. Why am I still pretending there is anyone who disagrees with me here! On the other side of the ball, The Hornets have been weakest against Guards and Wing players, meaning Russell, who is 11th in the NBA in usage, stands out at 7500. Additionally, while I expect people will be over Kurucs more than Harris, due to Kurucs recent performance, his cheaper price point and his better OPRK according to DK, I think taking 3s will be crucial to a winning strategy, and, especially with Crabbe out, Harris is the one they give that responsibility to. Another player that can give you 25-30 real points today at under 5k.
- Jrue - This game features a healthy 228.5 total and a spread of DAL -2.5. Dallas is, BY FAR, weakest against guards, and, while Brow is a freak, nearly 12k for someone who will be seeing the fantastic D of Jordan is someone I will look to pivot from. Jrue was over 9000 recently and, in this game environment, he should produce like someone priced over 9000. Mirotic being out also helps add to Jrue’s usage/matchup specific ceiling. With everything up in the air, we may not know who we can play on the Dallas side of the ball, but if you are looking to take advantage of this game, I think Jrue will be your best bet among the big 3 of Randle, Brow and Jrue. I would also posit he will be the least owned.
- Rudy Gay - The position you can attack the Nuggets at the most efficiently is PF, where Rudy Gay plays a majority of his minutes. At 5900, given his recent production in limited minutes (due to blow out), Gay is a slam dunk tonight. While the Spurs tend to always win or lose by blow out, this game is projected to get to a decent-but-not-great 214, and stay close with SAS -3. I would wager that some of that is on the back of extra production out of Gay (though DeRozan is also in a fine spot if you want to stack this game).
- Kings vs Clippers - Fun Fact- the Kings are the only team out of all 20 that are playing in a back-to-back, traveling back home after this game. Another fun fact- The Kings are 2nd in pace and the Clippers are 9th. A 3rd fun fact- this game is projected for the most points on the slate at 239 with a close enough spread of LAC -5.5. A 4th fun fact- there is not a single starter in this game that is in the top 10 of their position in DRPM. A 5th fun fact- there are no starters in the top 50 in usage in this game. The only player getting decent minutes in the top 50 is Lou Williams who has raised his usage ranking from 6th to 4th since Friday. A 6th fun fact - finally, finally, finally we have a late night hammer game (one that starts 2 hours after the 8th and 9th start at 830) that doesn’t have a bunch of injury news we have to wait for. You know how many people are Questionable, Probable, or Doubtful?? 0. I think that this game will have pretty high ownership, but I think it’s not going to be as high as it should be, either. I just can’t imagine people being OK with paying 8200 for Fox or 7200 for Hield or 6600 for LouWill coming off the bench. There are SO MANY center options, not nearly enough people will be on WCS at only 6500. And after his last dud, plenty of folks will be hesitant to play Montrezl at only 5700. Again, this game is a hair away from an insane total of 240. There are going to be a ton of points put up by a bunch of people. This is not the matchup to fade any of them. Given how weak the Clippers are against PG, and how few people I think will play him at that price, I will have a hard time getting off Fox tomorrow.
Situations to avoid (in no particular order): - Pacers - When I was doing my notes I saw this game, saw the Hawks, and expected to love it. But digging in more (and looking at pricing), I think I will wind up staying away. No one with any credibility will argue there is someone you can’t play against the Hawks. The matchup is so good, with Atlanta being first in pace, and near the bottom in defense, that anyone has a legit chance of going off. This makes me worry about not only the risk of a blowout, but the ability of the Pacers to slow this game down. This is what I imagine happening- Indiana Player takes a shot with 2 seconds left on the shot clock. The Hawks Centers, who can’t hang with Turner when they are all healthy, are all banged up. So if the Pacers player misses, Turner has a good shot at the offensive rebound. He throws it out to Collison or Oladipo and the process repeats. On the other side, the actual decent Pacers D will cause the Hawks to miss shots that, again, Turner will have an easier chance at getting. This will cause the game both to have a low total, a lower number of possessions, but also blow out. If Oladipo wasn’t 8700 and Turner wasn’t 8000 I would be interested, but I see far too many ways for this game to go pear-shaped to take a risk here, not with so many better game environments out there.
- Raptors vs. Heat - It is now 12:06am on Boxing Day. The O/U for this game and the Wolves game haven’t come out yet. We know we are waiting for word on Rose before the O/U comes out for the Wolves, but, as far as I know, we are not waiting on any injury news, no one is questionable that carries major weight, and there are no extenuating circumstances that would create hesitation in Vegas. Still, I would expect this to be a defensively minded, low scoring, slow paced game for which there is no one priced at enough of a value that I consider them viable. Ibaka has been called Probable already, and the only news on Kawhi is that he will start playing back-to-backs in January. This isn’t a back-to-back for Toronto either.
- Cavs v. Grizzlies - THE PROJECTED TOTAL IS 196.5 WITH A SPREAD OF MEMPHIS -10.5 I will make this simple, don’t play a god damn thing from this game.
- Nugs vs Spurs - Apart from Gay, I just don’t like this game between the 25th and 26th paced teams, at prices that are completely fair for everyone. I would be all over this game if everyone was 1000 cheaper, but, as it is, everyone is too fairly priced for this game environment.
Situations to monitor: - Hawks - As I said before, I don’t really have much interest in the IND/ATL game. However, there are a couple of things we have to consider. First, injuries- Lin is Probable, Prince is still Out, Collins is Questionable, Spellman is Out, Dedmon is Probable, Len is Questionable, and Plumlee is Out. That’s a lot of value that could open up. Second, on the Hawks side, if Collins is out, the most expensive player on their entire roster is Trae Young at 5900. It’s not a great spot, but every single one of the Hawks can be in the conversation for punt plays here. If they somehow manage to make this game close, those points are going to come from somewhere, and that somewhere is INSANELY underpriced. Again, this isn’t a place I see myself prioritizing, but I would certainly not complain if I fell into a Bazemore or Huerter if Lin manages to miss. Or Dedmon if he is the only healthy big for the game. He will probably get eaten up by Turner. Or the Hawks can just play small all game, hurting both Dedmon and Turner’s minutes. But he has a legit shot at more than 30 minutes at only 5200 as the only healthy body. Make sure to pay attention to the developments throughout the day to see what value opens up and what it means for ownership and this game’s spread.
- Wolves/Bulls - The 2nd game with no current O/U, we are waiting on the 2 questionable tags for Derrick Rose and, somehow, Zach LaVine. I imagine if LaVine is in, he will be limited which would remove all consideration from any guards on this team. Rose is Questionable, but got a practice in with the team on Monday. If he is healthy and not limited, I will go here for 6800, even in what may turn out to be a blowout. What can’t be argued is that, regardless of Rose’s status, KAT is also one of the best plays on the slate. Chicago is weakest against C, KAT is 44th in usage in the NBA, and Chicago has no one that can hang with KAT. While 9400 is a lot, again, there are very few spots better for a player on this slate. I imagine the great options, as well as the threat of blowout, will suppress ownership on KAT. if this game stays close, we could see him approach his ceiling, especially if Rose is limited or out altogether. On the other side, if LaVine is out, Markkanen and Dunn are expensive enough people won’t play them, but too cheap for their production. Also, with Portis out, Robin Lopez has been getting into the 20s in minutes. At 3100, he may be one of the best punts on the slate (especially if this game projects to blow out)
- Mavs - In a 228.5 total game where the Mavs are projected to win by -2.5, we are going to have to find some pieces from here. Right now, Smith, Barea, and Matthews are Questionable. If all 3 are out or only Barea plays (I assume Barea will play, and the other two are truly up in the air), Doncic, who’s price has risen to a healthy 8300, will be dramatically underowned for the production he will put up. Again. 228.5 total. 8300 is a lot. And it’d still probably be 1000 too cheap for a matchup against the Pelicans. Basically, everything is going to come down to the news tomorrow. We have to find out who is in, who is out, who is limited, who isn’t and then get what we can out of this game, cause odds are we will need it.
Alright! With that, my Boxing Day article has drawn to a close. I hope you are more Mike Tyson today than Glass Joe.
Let’s all get rich today!
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bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for February 25th and Review of February 24th
Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter
@bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review!
Yesterday In Review: My Lineup- -
Name | Price | DKP | Value |
Lowry | 7300 | 47 | 6.4x |
Lin | 4400 | 14.25 | 3.2x |
Gay | 5700 | 21.75 | 3.8x |
Kornet | 3900 | 0 | 0x |
Gasol | 5600 | 29.75 | 5.3x |
T. Ross | 5300 | 41.25 | 7.8x |
LMA | 7500 | 26.25 | 3.5x |
Jokic | 10200 | 53 | 5.2x |
Total | 49900 | 233.25 | 4.674x |
Best Possible Lineup- -
Using the free lineup rewind tool on fantasycruncher, I find the highest possible lineup that could have been played.
Name | Price | DKP |
DSJ | 6800 | 52 |
T. Ross | 5300 | 41.25 |
Dotson | 4200 | 42.25 |
Millsap | 6100 | 55.5 |
Vuc | 9700 | 53 |
DeRozan | 8100 | 53.25 |
Knox | 5200 | 37.5 |
Mitchell Robinson | 4600 | 45 |
Total | 50000 | 379.75 |
Analysis- Man, another mess of a slate. First, I am still angry that, when I started my work yesterday, there was no 3 game slate available. That changed everything, and I’m sorry I didn’t do a normal full article in that case. Second, Kawhi was ruled out from out of nowhere, even though it’s not a back-to-back, forcing everyone to scramble and change lineups completely. Including me. Also, I am pissed off to the point I don’t know if I’m going to play any Knicks anymore. With Jordan out, you had to assume Kornet would get at least SOME run tonight at 3900 but, instead, he got 0 minutes in the first half and they let Ellenson get some minutes, which I predicted yesterday, but not at the expense of Kornet who had been getting 30 minutes a game. So ugh. Knicks. Sorry. Not gonna go there again. I locked in Lowry, Lin and Gasol with Kawhi out and Gasol starting. I thought Lin would get more run than he did (like FVV would), but they didn’t use him even close to the same way. I also loved Terrence Ross in that game so I locked him in. This let me get Jokic from the DEN game, who i thought was the best play on the slate, as well as get LMA, Gay and Kornet in the last game of the day. I was looking OK until DeRozan went off (as I predicted. ugh.) and Kornet didn’t get in the game. For some reason. That no one knows. Except Fizdale is a shitty coach we can’t trust. Ever. Enough Sentence Fragments. Let’s. Get. Down. To. Biz. i. Ness. (I think that’s actually Will. i. Am’s brother).
The Daily Slate: So, I am going to ditch the MSC section. It just isn’t what I was hoping. Most of the time, with the injury news, the play isn’t as good as it should be, and I feel like I am forcing that person into my lineup, regardless of the news, at my own detriment. I will still let you know the players I think will have a better chance of reaching their ceiling, but, especially on a day like today - one with 11 games and a ton of studs questionable or worse - it wouldn’t benefit you to pick someone now when everything will change so dramatically before lock. I do hope to be able to do a Good Chalk/Bad Chalk more often from now on to combat this. But we will see how it all shakes out. We have to remember, I am new to this. I only started this a couple months ago and I’m trying to do something different with this long form experiment. With talking about more than basketball. With everything. So it will be a living, breathing, evolving thing. It also means I am up for suggestions to how to improve it!
Besides the MSC disappearing for the foreseeable future, there is another major change- a significant addition that should help you out, and help increase the amount of communication I can engage in (even more than here or twitter). Ever since someone told me about Slack a month or so ago, I have been looking into a chat app to provide more of a real-time ability to talk to people about the slate. Or discuss breaking news. Or answer questions if I can. I was going to do Slack, but it was too much of a clusterfuck for me. I can understand why it’s popular, but it’s just not as easy to manage as I want something like this to be. While I was looking around, a few of the people that helped start FanDuel got a hold of me and wanted me to try a new chat app called Flick. I downloaded it and gave it a go and I really like it (or I would either use something else, or just not do this yet). I will be able to chat in real time. I will be able to make new topics for everything and anything I want. So I can make a new chat every day for every slate. For MLB and NBA. I can regulate it so it’s invite only, so we won’t be harassed by trolls and people trying to give us bad information. All of this was very important to me, since I really believe in what I am doing and don’t want to hurt its quality in any way. Expanding to something I can’t control, where harrassment is possible and it’s too easy to lose things, just wasn’t going to work for me. So starting tomorrow, I am going to be crossposting everything I do here into Flick, in a new topic, where I can answer questions or just chat about various process issues. It will be faster and easier than messaging me here or on twitter (though, as an older dude, I may not be as good at it as I should be). So, if you are interested, I would download the
Flick App and send me a DM here or on twitter and I will send you the invite link. I am excited to give this a try and I hope it helps all of you as much as I think it will. Alternately, you can probably just look me up on the app as “bathrobeDFS” and ask for an invite there, but I have no problem doing it here or on twitter either. Ok. That’s enough with that. Let’s look at this crazy 11 game slate.
Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order): - Kemba - Let me say that, given the fact he will matched up against 5th worst SG in Klay, I also like Lamb (5400) a lot today. But no one is in the ballpark on this team that Kemba (8900) is in. With Zeller back, he is a different player and he is someone who, especially in this game, can get you closer to 60 DKP. First, CHA is 28th in pace and GS is 3rd, meaning this is an awesome pace up spot for Kemba. Second, Kemba is 10th in the NBA in usage. And on top of that, he will be lined up where GS is weakest- against Guards (SG moreso, but that doesn’t mean Kemba won’t get some Klay sometimes). This game has a 234 total and GS is only projected to win by 7. If it stays the close and Kemba gets you 40 minutes again, he would have to be unlucky just to finish at value. He’s just priced to cheap for the matchup, the pace up spot, and the fact that Zeller is back up and healthy.
- Warriors Dart Throw - Which one is it going to be today? Or will they just spread out the usage? Since Cousins (8000) had his minutes limit lifted, he has played 2 games. In both, he only wound up with 27 minutes. His price, however, has spike from 6100 to 8000. He’s not getting any more minutes. And now he’s going to have to get 35+ minutes of his insane PPM to get us enough points to help us win a tourney. Curry (9300) has been hot lately, and has a fine matchup. However, so does Durant (9400). The problem is, again, who is going to get the usage? Curry will be lined up against Kemba, who is mediocre. Durant will be lined up against Batum, who is mediocre. Just pick the one you like better, as much as it sucks to say something like that. Anyone who tells you they KNOW what is going to happen with this Warriors team is trying to sell you something and, frankly, lying to you. Even the experts are as frustrated as you with a TooManyCooks situation. The best thing you can do is take a chance on a Klay (6700) or Dray (6000) whose prices are low enough they could really pay off with a ceiling game, and their floors are high enough that they shouldn’t kill you or keep you from the cash. Meanwhile, if you spend 9400 on someone and they get you 40, you are going to have a harder time than if Klay or Dray gets you 30. Either way, this is an awesome game. There are going to be a ton of points scored by this Warriors team, and, given how close it’s supposed to be, we can count on that production through the entirety of that game (we would hope).
- Kevin Love - Well, let’s just tackle this. Kevin Love (6900) will probably be the overwhelming chalk today. They finally let him play some 4th quarter minutes and he responded about as well as you could have asked, putting up 54 DKP in 26 minutes. 32 points with 12 rebounds is nothing to yawn at, and Love, as the only real star on this team, will have to do that every single game if he can. If he can get 30 minutes today (and, if they want to have a chance against Nurkic, they will need him in for that long), he could top 50 DKP again easily, even against the improved defense Nurkic provides over an Ivan Rabb. Though, to be fair, he should see some minutes against Kanter as well who is statistically the worst defensive Center in the NBA. To me, this is like a Cousins situation, though. If he is not owned tomorrow, I will take a chance on him. If he is chalk, like I expect, I will have to look elsewhere. It’s an 11 game slate- there are people around 7k who can get you 50+ DKP and will be getting 38 minutes. How can you take someone who is only getting 26 when there are so many other better options out there?
- Lillard and CJ - I mean, it’s not really breaking news at this point, if you’ve been reading my articles, that Collin Sexton and Trae Young have been flip flopping as the worst defender in the whole of the NBA. Right now Sexton is 2nd worst, but that is still second worst in the NBA. As bad as he is, the Cavs are even worse against SGs. So if you are looking for a couple dudes in a pace down situation, in a game that’s projected to blow out, take a good shot on Lillard (9200) and CJ (6400). If this game manages to stay close (for example, if they let Love play 30 minutes), Lillard and CJ could both pay off here. With how deep everything else on this team is, and with the addition of Kanter taking 20+ minutes a game, it’s really hard to trust anyone else, especially with Nurkic priced at 7900.
- LMA - I know it’s easy to look at yesterday’s game. People were all over LMA and DeRozan and LMA disappointed to put it lightly. It would be easy to see that and get off him today. I mean, he was against the Knicks, right? How could he not deliver? Well, the answer is simple- the Knicks started Vonleh at Center and he is one of the best defenders on that team. Bar None. Not that LMA didn’t get himself into foul trouble. But it wasn’t as easy a matchup as him playing Center against the Nets. Oh yeah! I’m as excited as the Kool-Aid Man. We get to play LMA (7500) in a game he should sleepwalk to 50 DKP at less ownership than he should have. We never know what Pop is going to do in a B2B so we have to be careful but, assuming LMA gets his normal run, he is one of the top plays on the slate today. The Spurs are 21st in pace and the Nets are 2nd, so this is a huge pace up spot. He will get more rebounds since it’s the Nets. The O/U is 231 and BK is projected to actually win by 2, meaning they are going to need him to produce tomorrow. I just have to be all over LMA here. I will also mention that White (4800) is expected back but should still be limited by his heel injury. He missed yesterday’s game and only played 20 minutes in his first game back from the injury. If he misses, Bertans (3900) will get a bunch of extra run and he should produce really, really well in this matchup.
- Nets - If you look at the recent DvP, the Spurs are the worst team in the NBA against PG. Even though White is highly rated as a defender, he has missed time with an injury and, when he has played, it has been limited by said injury, both in terms of minutes and ability. I mean, the Spurs play at the 21st fastest pace but give up the 4th most DKPPG. That’s insane. This game has a 231 total and the Nets are projected to win by 2. So, when I tell you DLo (8400), who has been on fire lately (55+ DKP in 3 of his last 4 games, the other was a blowout), should be at least 1000 more expensive, it means he is one of the top plays of the day. He is the lead dog of this offense and no one is even close. He’s 8th in the NBA overall in usage. Nothing is going to stop him today, with a hobbled White trying to defend him. I am all in on the D-Lo train. Choo Choo. I will also point out that, since having his minutes restriction lifted, Crabbe (4100) has played 4 games, getting 31.25, 25.25, 26.5, and 12.25 DKP. While he may have another 1-8 shooting day, the odds are he is going to also be needed to shoot 13 times again this game, pushing closer to the 30 DKP range of his production. At 4100 and 1% ownership, I’ll take that all day. Lastly, LeVert (5400) is still too cheap, but he is only a GPP play. You are hoping he will get you closer to his ceiling and not another 18 DKP game. Just be aware of the risk if you want to go there.
- Heat Injuries - Right now, Justise, James Johnson, and McGruder are DOUBTFUL meaning we should count on them not playing. With Dragic (4900) coming back from an injury and seeing a heavily limited amount of minutes, it means we are going to get a few really, really great plays here. Did I mention that the Heat are playing the Suns?? The Suns that give up the most DKPPG in the NBA? The Suns that don’t know how to play D? The Suns that have 3 people in the bottom 5 in DRPM (Booker, Oubre, and Ayton). The Suns that are a huge pace up matchup for the Heat? Hell yeah. The most expensive Heat player is Whiteside (6600) and I would assume this is one of those games they don’t need him as much. I would be a big fan of playing Bam (3900) then, especially on a slate where we will need the value. I also think Wade (5100) plays a bunch of PG minutes, meaning we can count on him getting some extra assists and, therefore, extra DKP. He is going to be far too cheap here (unless Dragic is completely unlimited). I would also think Derrick Jones Jr (3400), who got 27 minutes last game, would also be in the position to do so again today and should hopefully be able to produce at a better clip. On top of all of that, PHX is worst in the NBA against SG. I expect Waiters (4700) to get some extra production his way and he is already someone who’s been pushing 30 DKP every game. This is just a game replete with options and we are gonna be able to sneak some of these dudes in to help us get some studs in.
- Tyler Johnson - So, in their last game, Tyler Johnson (4800) got 35 minutes against the Hawks, shooting 10-16 on his way to 49.25 DKP. Is it chasing points to be on him tonight, or is there some other explanation we can ascertain here? I would say that the matchup against Trae Young was crucial, but in this game, he will be facing a similar situation- Dragic is limited and Wade is one of the worst defenders in the NBA at his age. He’s not facing Winslow, which would make me more concerned. In that game, Booker was facing Baze and Ayton was facing Dedmon, two of the Hawks best defenders. In this game, Booker will be facing Richardson and Ayton will be facing Whiteside, the Heat’s two best defenders. Listen, I know that, when it comes down to it, this team is going to be Devin Booker (8600) shooting the ball 28 times a game, leaving scraps for all the other people (making him a great play any day, even against a slower, tougher opponent). I had previously said that you should choose between Oubre and Jackson. Now I think you need to choose between Oubre, Jackson, and Tyler Johnson as the 2nd producer on this team. Given the matchup, and his 34 minutes, I will give the advantage to TJ today. And I couldn’t care less about the revenge narrative here.
- Giannis DOUBTFUL - Oh boy can we take advantage of this. Right now, for some reason, Vegas still thinks the Bucks are going to win this game by 11, even though the total is a sweet 228. I think, if Giannis plays, I would be fine with that total. But with Giannis out, and given the way the Bulls have been playing lately, I will be all over this game tonight. (If you can do sports betting, bet on the Bulls to cover that 11. I mean. I would. A lot.) So let’s break it down. First, Bledsoe (6400) will be matched up against Dunn (5700). In the 2 games since the all-star break, Dunn has put up 12.25 and 15.75 DKP. Now he is matched up against one of of the better PG defenders in the game. Bledsoe, on the other hand, will have a lot more to do with Giannis out and should be one of the first people you look at on this slate, assuming you don’t think this game blows out. Let’s skip to C now, because I can do whatever I want. Here we will see the Lopez twins matched against each other. BroLo (4600) is the better offensive and defensive player at this point, and has a matchup against a Bulls team that struggles against Centers. RoLo (4100) is far too cheap for someone who will be forced into almost 30 minutes and has been getting around 1PPM as it is. Now let’s skip to SF. I hope you can see what I’m doing. Here we have Middleton (6300), someone who is another great play when Giannis misses, matched up against either Otto Porter (5900), who is questionable, or Wayne Selden (3200). Needless to say, if Porter misses, Middleton becomes a better play (although I still like Bledsoe more). If Porter misses, almost all of the usage on this team will be split between the only two people left, LaVine (7400) and Lauri (7900). Both of these dudes have been eating at the same time- in their last game, LaVine had 55 DKP and Lauri got 61. Now they get matched up against Brogdon (5400) and Ilyasova (3400), who should be filling in for Giannis. This makes Markkanen one of my favorite plays of the day with LaVine not far behind him. I also have to point out that Ilyasova starting for that price is someone else you should consider locking in (although I imagine he will be chalk). If the Bucks decide to get crazy and start Mirotic (5400) instead, lock him in there cause he is going to get 50 DKP if they let him get 30 minutes tonight.
- Grizzlies - The Grizzlies are never really a fun team to play, but there are a couple really nice spots here. First up, they are matched up with the Lakers, one of the fastest teams in the league. The Grizzlies, who normally see an O/U in their games around 200 will see an O/U of 221.5 against the Lakers, just to show you how many more points and possessions the Grizzlies are expected to get. On top of that, the Lakers give up the 3rd most DKPPG to opposing teams, meaning we can count on all these Grizzlies to exceed their normal projections. So where do we attack? Well, that part is EASY. The Lakers are the worst team in the NBA over the last month against C and 2nd worst against PG. So come onnnnnnnnn down Conley (7600), who can get you more than 50 DKP in this matchup, and JoVal (6400) who will get you 30 minutes and could also push 50 DKP in this matchup. With JJJ out, and Rabb (5600) playing some PF, JoVal is pretty damn close to a lock here, and I can’t wait to get him in there. I also must point out that Delon Wright (3800) is one of the best punts on the day, period. I don’t care what happens between now and lock (apart from, you know, Delon Wright being ruled out). He is a serious threat for over 30 DKP today, and they just haven’t increased his price sufficiently for his new role on this team. Especially if we get some injury news, at which point he is going to be completely overlooked tomorrow. Don’t make the same mistake.
- Lakers - Ok so, I’m looking at these Lakers rotations against NO and I am completely blown away. They have 2 Centers now- McGee (5000) and Chandler (3100). I was looking through the logs and saw that, combined, they only got 21 minutes last game and I was confused. What the hell happened? After 6 minutes in the 1st quarter, McGee was taken out for Chandler. Chandler then played about 4.5 minutes before being taken out for LeBron coming back in the game. Neither Center saw the floor again during that half. Chandler didn’t see the floor again that night. So, after they took Chandler out the 5 players on the floor were - Josh Hart, KCP, Rondo, Stephenson and LeBron. So LeBron was playing Center with 4 guards? At the beginning of the 2nd, they brought Ingram in for Stephenson. Ingram got his 3rd foul almost immediately, so they put Kuzma back in (who took over Center). But, had Ingram not fouled, the Lakers would have been running Hart, KCP, Rondo, Ingram, and LeBron for an extended time. So, again, who is playing what??? Ingram is the PF? For the rest of the game, either McGee, Kuzma, or Wagner manned the 5. So why is this important? Because the Grizzlies are now awful against Centers. Look at what Kevin Love just did to them. So this means that I have a lot more interest in LeBron (11200) and Kuzma (6200) since they are going to be getting extended time at the 4 and the 5, where the Grizzlies are going to be the easiest to exploit. If you are gonna play anyone against the slowest team in the league, make it at least one of these two.
- KAT and Saric - I had a hard time deciding which of these players I wanted to list at the top before I realized I can just put both up there since I can do whatever I want. Ah, freedom. So, KAT (10100) will be back after an extended rest due to a concussion. He should be able to jump back into his normal minutes in a matchup against a WCS on the road. Oh boy that’s awesome. Also, Saric (4600) is someone people will forget about. He seems to have his normal game where he gives you value, which is fine, and then an occasional ceiling where he goes off. Today’s game, he will be faced up against Harrison Barnes and Bagley at PF. Bagley is, literally, the worst defensive PF in the NBA. He is 93rd out of 93. The fun thing is that Barnes is 50th out of 80something SFs. But that is a different monster than PF. If you take his DRPM and place him in the PF position, he would be 80th of 93. So, basically, Saric is going to be going to a buffet tomorrow and he will be the only thing that’ll be able to stop him from eating as much as he wants. Oh, and, by the by, the Wolves are 20th in pace and the Kings are 3rd so this whole game for the Wolves is fantastic.
- Fox and Barnes - This is not a personal injury law firm, as much as it sounds like one. Here I am strongly recommending both Fox (7200) and Barnes (4800). First, MIN is weakest against PGs. Fox has gotten over 40 DKP his last 2 games, and 3 of his last 4 (with the other one 35 DKP). He is going to get a ton of minutes against D Rose, who is 480th out of the 491 players ranked by DRPM. Take advantage of that. Similarly, with all the talk of how Bagley is 93rd out of 93 PF and how Barnes would be 80 out of 93, I didn’t mention who is 90th- Dario Saric. So basically we are going to see Barnes show up to the same buffet Saric is attending. It’s going to be fun to watch them both go off. As risky as all the other players are (from a minutes perspective), Fox and Barnes (Esq.) are the safest bets here from both a minutes and production standpoint.
- Sixers vs Pelicans - As much as I would love to just pick one or two players from both teams here, this game is about as good as it gets for this slate. A 238 total with the Pelicans 1.5 point home favorites. Embiid out, which should keep it close. Brow is limited to around 25 minutes and Jrue is limited to around 30 minutes a game, which should also help keep it close. Both teams top 10 in pace. It’s just going to be a beautiful game on both ends, and especially from the perspective of a DFS player. I don’t often say this, but this is one of those games that doesn’t really have a bad play. I mean, Brow is unplayable. But even Jrue (7700) showed you he can put up 50 DKP, even in his limited time. He also showed you he will get up to 33 minutes if the situation arises (and it will in this game). He is going to be completely ignored with the news of his limited minutes, but his price has fallen far enough we can still get him to far exceed his value, especially in this matchup (although he will probably see Butler’s D). Everyone else is unquestionable. Simmons (8000) dropped 52.25 DKP against Portland, 3 rebounds from a 3x2, and this matchup is streets ahead of that one. He is one of the best plays on this entire slate, running away. Going into their last game, I was worried that Randle (7800) was also going to be limited, since he only saw 25 minutes in the game before last, but he saw 38 minutes in the last game, so that fear was completely unfounded and we can deploy Randle like normal. Here, he will be matched up against either Tobias Harris (6800) or Mike Scott (3300). Speaking of which, Randle is the worst ranked C in DRPM, meaning that Harris himself is a fantastic play from a matchup perspective. When you combine that with the usage increase he gets with Embiid out, as well as the increase in Rebounds, he becomes a fantastic 50 DKP upside play at less than 7k. After getting 27 minutes and 38 DKP in the first game Embiid missed, Boban (5500) only managed to get 19 minutes and 14.75 DKP in the last game. With his 2000 price increase, I will call him a wonderful, perfect GPP play but someone who comes with all the risk that that entails. Kenrich (5500), on the other hand, should still see his minutes, even with Moore getting some minutes today. Miller is Doubtful and, honestly, I think Kenrich will get his run no matter what. He has been either getting you 35 or 15 DKP lately, we we’ll have to hope that this will be more of a 35 than 15 game. Elf (4800) is dramatically underpriced for a starting PG getting 38 minutes in a game projected with a 238 total. I mean, seriously. If Boban doesn’t get the run, I expect the extra minutes to fall to Scott, who got 30 minutes and 24.5 DKP last game. Everyone else is just too risky for me to go with them, but if you want to go for a Butler, Redick, or a Diallo I wouldn’t blame you at all. All 3 would be fine GPP plays, but I wouldn’t count on any of them even reaching value today.
- Clippers - So there are a couple ways I want to attack the Mavs and it just so happens that some of the Clippers strongest players are right there. First, I want to attack them at Center. Specifically, I want to attack Powell, who will play backup but still get most of the minutes. That sounds like he is going to match up perfectly with Montrezl (6800). That means Montrezl is yet another sub 7k play that can get you an easy 50 DKP tonight. I mean, jeez. If this isn’t a balanced lineup night, I don’t know what one is. You can also attack Dallas from the wing, meaning I want people who are going to shoot 3s. In this case, I want to get LouWill (7000), Gallo (6500) and Shamet (4000) in my player pool, with LouWill and Gallo both given serious consideration for the main lineup given how cheap they are as well. As I will discuss later when talking about the Doncic issue, this is going to be a tough game to figure out how to attack. Obviously Doncic’s health is a big factor and it’s good to know that, should we want to focus on this game, there are plenty of places to go on both sides, where most of the field is going to just ignore this game completely, especially if Doncic turns into a GTD.
Situations to monitor: - Myles Turner QUESTIONABLE - This is the first significant piece of news we will be waiting for tomorrow. Hopefully we find out around noon since the Pacers should have a shootaround tomorrow morning. I am worried they will declare him a GTD but, even if that happens, this game goes off first at 7pm, so we should still be able to plan for everything. His presence makes a huge difference in this game, both on the Pacers side and on the Pistons side. Let’s get into both. First, if Turner (6200) plays without a minutes limit, they are going to need the hell out of him against Andre and Blake. He is priced far too low for his production and people will not be on him cause of the Q tag. If he is limited, yuck to everyone. If he is out, I will be very interested, again, in Sabonis (6300) who saw a nice price increase, but not enough of one for his production in games that Turner misses. O’Quinn (4300) saw his price jump 1300 making him a much more difficult play to stomach. I know he’s getting you around 25 DKP, but at that price, he doesn’t really have a 30-40 DKP ceiling we would need to win an 11 game slate GPP. I will also point out, as always, Collison (5800) is matched against R Jax who is awful. He has been getting you around 30 DKP, so he may not give you the ceiling you need in GPP, but he is a safe producer. Similarly, Bojan (5500) is still flourishing without Oladipo. His price is close to the 6k it needs to be, but we can still find some room here. He can put up 40 DKP, especially if Turner is out. And I assume most people will be off him given the fact this is a game between 2 slow teams with a total of 212.5. The spread, though, is only DET -2.5, so ignoring the game will not benefit you. On the other side, if Turner is out, I will be in love with Drummond (9000) tonight. He will get a 20/20 against O’Quinn. If Turner is in, I will be off Drummond. It’s that simple. I will have more interest in Blake (9100) if Turner is in, given how much more he will need to do. I would also strongly suggest taking a long, hard look at playing Kennard (4400) tonight. He keeps getting more than 30 minutes and producing like 1 PPM. At 4400 that’s just too much to pass up.
- Harden QUESTIONABLE - So, Harden (11400) is still nursing that neck injury. Given this is a matchup against the lowly Hawks, I would expect them to exercise caution and rest Harden for another game, but we are going to have to see what they do. Hopefully the news comes out in the morning because, needless to say, it’s hugely significant. Right now Vegas doesn’t have an O/U or a spread while they wait word on Harden, but, this is going to be a 230+ total and the factor that will determine if this is a blowout and, thus, if this is a good game to target, is Harden’s status. So, if he plays, and isn’t limited, I imagine that this game is over pretty quickly. The Hawks are one of the worst defenses in the league, and are also one of the worst at defending both PG and SG (and are worst against PF, for that matter). Harden can be played, and he will probably be significantly underowned based on the injury status. If they decide to play smart and rest him, you pretty much have to consider CP3 (8100), Faried (5500), and Gordon (4600) as close to a lock as you can get on an 11 game slate. CP3 is one of my favorite plays anyway. Even if Harden plays, he’s going to get a ton of usage, and get a matchup against worst-defender-in-the-NBA Trae Young. He just becomes even better if Harden misses. With Collins a terrible defender, the Hawks worst in the NBA against PF, and Faried starting at PF last game (with Harden out), I would be also be all over him in this spot. If you were on him last game, in a much tougher matchup, he rewarded you with 38 DKP and his price fell 300. Gordon also sees a spike in usage with Harden out, as evidenced by the 20 shots he took last game (and 37.75 DKP). I would expect much of the same this game, except he is going to be matched up against either Huerter or Vince Carter or Bembry instead of Durant. On the other side, given the matchup against CP3, I will be hesitant to play Trae (8200) for the first time in weeks. But with Prince and possible Huerter out again, he may have no choice but to take as many shots as he can. I also feel like this makes Collins (7300) and Bazemore (5400) better plays, even though Collins has been up and down lately, and Baze saw his price rise 1000. Baze is fresh off a 38.75 DKP game and I don’t think anyone will be on him today. If Huerter does wind up missing, Baze is going to be one of the first people I lock in. On top of all that, Eric Gordon is one of the worst defenders in the NBA and that’s who Baze would get matched with all game. It would be just too sweet to pass up. As much as I worry about his minutes, Dedmon (5300) gets matched up against a Capela (7000) who is also a bad defender and getting a limited run as it is. He has put up 40+ DKP in his last 2 games. If the Hawks want to keep this one close, he’s gonna need to do that again. So, to sum it up, does Harden play? And if he doesn’t, do you think this game stays close anyway? If so, boy are there are lot of amazing plays.
- Doncic QUESTIONABLE - When Vegas doesn’t have a total posted yet, you know the star that’s questionable is really questionable. The main problem we have is that 10 of the 11 games are going to tip off and lock by 8pm. There is ONLY ONE game that goes off after 8pm and that is the DAL/LAC game that locks in at 1030pm. If we don’t know Doncic’s status in the morning, we probably won’t know until 830-9pm at the earliest meaning we are either going to have to play a lot of people in this game so we can move people around, or just ignore the game completely. While I can understand that, I just can’t do that with how many good plays there are here. First, if Doncic (8800) can play without a limit, he should be 10k. Every game. He is 6th in usage in the NBA. He is a threat of a 3x2 every game. He is shooting the ball 20+ times a game. This team is his, and the fortunes of the Mavs will rise and fall with the abilities of this 19 year old kid. I would expect the Mavs to be favorites on the road if Doncic plays and for the Clippers to be favorites if Doncic misses. Either way, this is going to be another game with a 220+ total and a close enough spread. If Doncic plays, the only other Mavs I would have interest are all the PF/Cs we can get- the Clippers are about as bad as can be against both positions, meaning I will be really interested in Powell (4000), Kleber (3800), and Mejri (3200) in that order. Kleber is questionable with an illness as well, so if he misses, I will be all over Powell and Mejri with a rare Dirk Nowitzki (3100) sighting in my player pool. I also love Hardaway (5200) in this matchup and at at that price. I have been saying since the trade he is going to be over 6k soon and, even though he just dropped close to 40 DKP, his price isn’t budging. In this pace up matchup, I will be all over THJ whether or not Doncic is in. If Doncic is out, it also opens up both Brunson (3900) and Burke (3400). Feel free to play Burke if you hate yourself. I know I may. I just refuse to learn my lesson there, huh?
Man, this is going to be a fun one tonight! This is one of the rare times I didn’t even have to use my “situations to be careful of” section!! Everything is either great, or something we have to watch out for news about. Either way, I am excited to see you all on the new chat app I’ll be using. It should be really cool, and I’m excited to give it a try with all of you fantastic people. Best of luck tonight, everyone! And I guess I’ll talk to you all soon.
submitted by bathrobeDFS to dfsports [link] [comments]
Kawhi's choice of Clippers over Lakers: Most Gutsy, I-Am-The-Alpha Decision in NBA History?
- First reigning FMVP to leave his team ever.
- He could have created an overwhelming title favorite in the most successful/iconic NBA franchise since 1980, and he would have received a tiny fraction criticism of LeBron/Durant.
- He has chronic knee issues and have to hold back in the regular season, yet still chose his own team in the West knowing Paul George will most likely miss start of the season, instead of staying in the East.
Yet despite all of this, he clearly bought Game of Zones S6E8's Patrick Beverley pitch: Steve Ballmer's Microsoft money and Jerry West the championship architect will almost certainly get one more upgrade to the roster if everyone look healthy by all-star break. The Clippers is a hungry pack of dogs waiting for their alpha. Kawhi pitched to get his own Pippen and built the closest thing to Jordan/Pippen in 2020, in LA against the fan-favorite Lakers, and directly challenging King LeBron's throne in his own city after declining an alliance! He LITERALLY declared war against the best player of our generation in an era where alliance is far more common!
I don't remember anything even close to this in NBA history, obviously this can all backfire if health issues derail this team, if they fail to capture a ring next two seasons. On paper, both Vegas odds and my eye test says LeBron/AD is a touch better duo. Kawhi did not have a good finals either against the depleted warriors. He didn't look nearly as dominant as LeBron in any of the Cavs/Warriors series. If he fails, people will just say he overestimated himself after a fluke season.
But what if he is successful? What if the robot is cold blooded and calculated everything correctly? He made a very strange comment about he does not play for fans. From pure eye test and 1v1 stand point, I don't think Duncan could beat Shaq, heck he didn't destroy Malone/KG/Dirk's of the world with raw head-to-head stats either. The same way Kawhi doesn't fill up the stat sheet like LeBron, and with the exception of first half 2017 finals, Kawhi can't really beat Durant 1v1. But as the true heir to Duncan, he does everything required to win. He plays defense against the best player on the other team, he gives his teammate calmness and confidence, carries them when he has no choice (game 7 vs Sixers, game 3 vs Bucks), let them shine when they finally put it together. Duncan turned very low picks in ParkeGinobili into all stars. Kawhi turned Raptors into champions. There is something special about these two you can't really quantify with stats, otherwise Duncan would be just a 20/10 guy.
Kawhi has the highest winning percentage in NBA history. He turned first round exist Spurs into western finals, finals and championship in his first three seasons. He took Spurs to another conference finals the same season Duncan retired. He matched peak LeBron game score three straight games in 2014 finals to stop the Heat three-peat after Spurs lost home court!
He made this much more difficult, but if he rings one of the next two seasons, he will truly be, the King Slayer.
submitted by hitmantb to nba [link] [comments]
How and Why the Raiders will Stay in Oakland
An Open Letter to the Oakland Raiders: Why the Raiders Will Stay in Oakland
Raiders fans, sports fans at large, Oakland natives and anyone else who supports the Raider organization to stay in Oakland, the city where the team was born, this is for you. The value of a professional sports team to its community is without parallel. It is priceless. The touchpoints of a pro team are woven into society. The city of Oakland is a special place. It is my native city. A prideful city at the heart of the Bay Area. Oakland is diverse, a town of ingenuity, an historic and culturally rich city and a brilliant future for generations to come.
I have held on to the idea the Raiders franchise and the city of Oakland could find a middle ground to maintain their residence where the team was founded near 60 years ago. Some have laughed, some booed, some called me delusional. It’s a long, complicated saga between the team owners and the city leaders. Caught in the middle is the die-hard to the casual fan of all ages, local business owners who greatly benefit from having the Raiders players and employees living in the city limits and the surrounding communities. I’m not naïve to think it is going to be an easy solution. The most impactful things in life rarely are easy. This letter is not about casting blame at the team leadership or the city government. This unfortunate situation is decades in the making. Both sides hold some responsibility to this crisis. No one is innocent.
Every business has the right to move to another city or state. It is understood at some point it is more advantageous for the business to cut its losses and move to a better business environment, for the health of the company. I support a business leader’s choice to re-locate. It is usually good business to look out for the employees and the survival of the company. This is no ordinary business, and this is no typical situation. An NFL franchise is a rare earth material. There are only 32. A lot of people beyond the employer is affected. A pro team is a vital asset to its home city. Oaklanders understand this fact. We know what its like to lose a team, to get it back and to potentially lose it again. Insanity. A tragedy of epic proportions.
The most impacted is the youth. It tells them, what is important to you doesn’t matter. That the business decision to leave is more important than being supportive to the fans. The players current and former are also caught in the middle. The years of community connection, charitable involvement would go away, like water to vapor.
The players and team employees graciously give back to the region in immeasurable ways, donating copious hours to local charities, hospital visits, entrepreneurial programs, physical fitness camps all for local youth groups, veterans support programs, at risk population services, visits to schools, every student will remember for a lifetime, the list goes on! There is a dollar amount on an annualized basis that could be calculated. An economics disciplined person is capable of an estimated financial impact for one year and deduce how many years it will be before the financial impasse between the City and team will be resolved. Regardless the dollar amount the two sides can’t agree on, let’s figure the offset.
What is the long-term benefit for an agreeable financial amount to keep the Raiders, versus how many years it would take to compensate the communities affected? For example, the loss of the team means the sphere of philanthropic contributions in per person hours donated to charitable causes and the financial impact (donations, grants, lost commerce revenue) by players, team staff, visiting teams, their fans and our fans during the NFL season. The equation solution is not linear. When all the pros and cons are factored, the long-term benefit to the region at large and for the sports fans far exceeds a big eye-popping number, that likely scares many people to think critically about the overall impact. The harsh reality, without a well-conceived, and equitable solution, the sure loser is all the local businesses, fans and charitable causes benefiting from the team’s residency.
For non-sports fans who may not care whether the Raiders stay or leave, the non-monetary impact is worthy of supporting this just cause. Odds are one or more of your loved ones is or will be inspired by a player or team employee whether it be in the sciences, volunteerism or just feeling good because someone took time to listen and share their story. The selfless actions by staff and players is a gift to the local citizenry. What does inspiration for a life-time cost? It is an intangible.
Also affected are the part-time stadium workers who do it purely for the love of the team, feeling like part of something much bigger. The team employees either must relocate or be out of a job. If you have been to a Raider game, it’s a spectacle. In the mid/late 90’s I worked for a company based a few blocks from the stadium. For all time I will remember watching the armada of RVs and campers lined up on a Friday evening outside the parking lot awaiting for the gates to open, whether it was a traditional Sunday kickoff of a Monday night national game, the fans are there, days in advance. We live our un-yielding passion for the Silver and Black. The Raiders fans are a legion, we transcend being fans just because football is fun to watch. The fanbase is educated about the team’s legacy.
Oakland and neighboring cities will feel the ripple effect. The activities surrounding the team, pre-game and post-game will suffer. Some will go out of business; others will struggle to survive. Their patrons will lose the game day community, where we all despite our broad spectrum of personalities, and lifestyles come together, unified as a Raider Nation. Youth football programs and charitable involvement will falter. It is not all doom and gloom because there is one thing the people of Oakland, the greater region, the Raider fan base can do.
Stand united. Save our Oakland Raiders. The following are four points to save the team, keep them home, where they belong:
- A vacancy next door opens a legitimate reason for the Raiders to stay. The Golden State Warriors moved to San Francisco, done deal. The Warriors are a Bay Area treasure. The team is a beloved sports franchise for all time. The team’s 40 plus years calling Oakland home runs deep in the city’s history and will always be fondly remembered. Three world championships in five years is legendary, plus one more in the 1970s, makes four titles. The Oracle arena, dubbed “Roaracle”, a fitting name indeed, is now (largely) an abandoned venue, spare the occasional concert or indoor sporting event. Other venues will be excellent replacements, Henry J Kaiser, Fox Theater, not to mention the potential building a new music/arts venue in the future. The adjacent coliseum stadium home to the Raiders and the Athletics (A’s) of major league baseball (MLB) is the only duel sport franchise facility (two different pro sports) in the United States. It is possible both factions, city leaders and the Raiders management have allowed this detail to cloud a solution.
The plain fact, it is a health risk to the athletes. It’s an eyesore to see as a fan and in short, an embarrassment. The Oakland/Alameda county complex facility is aged. A solution is to use the existing footprint, tear down Oracle and the stadium and build two new facilities for the Raiders and A’s. For example, position the two buildings in current parking lots, A and C . The grounds are approximately 120 acres, large enough to accommodate two stadiums. The infrastructure is in part already in place. The local transit system Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) station is adjacent including a footbridge from the station to the stadium grounds. More important is the impact on the immediate neighborhood. Without the games and fans visiting near year-round, the neighborhood will slip into abandon. It is understood the state of California is strict with maintaining natural habitats. The environmental design and architecture industries have come a long way. There isn’t a better time to secure competitive bids to design an improved facility making a world class destination for sports fans and outdoor enthusiasts. A recent “60 Minutes” news program segment highlighted a Dutch architecture firm. Their winning design is an environmentally conscience solution, preserving beach dunes and constructing a community parking structure underground to enhance the experience for beach goers and tourists.
Like much of the Netherlands, the land the stadium complex sits on is a natural marsh system, in a tidal zone, meaning at certain times of day is below sea level. Oakland is not only a proud city, it is also a 30 plus year member of the “Tree City USA” program. . A testament to the city’s long-term commitment to urban natural habitats, parks and wilderness areas. A modern design will build much needed green space, and sports/recreation facilities for the surrounding residents. The East Oakland community is long overdue for an urban revival. For long time city residents, it’s an obvious need. Some local leaders rightly foresee a land grab (if the Raiders relocate) by deep pocketed industrialists. The locals will certainly be in a more tenuous situation. Whether the Raiders stay with the current site or choose a different location locally, the neighborhood deserves to use the stadium land space for a new community use, park space, recreation, sky’s the limit. Now it dovetails to the second concept:
- The A’s have put forward a beautiful rendering of a new baseball park along the Oakland estuary waterfront . It is a long-neglected part of the city. The waterfront holds a lot of promise for the sky-rocketing real estate prices. Oakland is in effect the central hub of the greater Bay Area based on the transportation (freeways and trains) systems and geographically is in a prime location. When the A’s move to their new facility, it leaves plenty of latitude for the Raiders to stay at the current site as referenced or choose another location, for example, the old Oakland Army Base or in a neighboring city, such as Emeryville, keeping in mind the benefits to build an environmentally compatible facility that will also bring a sustainable revitalization to the local community. During construction of a new facility, the Raiders could play at Cal Berkeley Memorial Stadium or the San Jose State stadium for a season, if construction requires a short-term home. While constructing a new stadium in one of the previously suggested sites or a different location, a simultaneous project to extend a BART line to transport attendees to the stadium and a revitalized neighborhood infrastructure could be developed, a matter of smart planning and logistics.
A well-designed revision of other public transit services and ride-sharing providers will be part of the master plan too. It doesn’t need to be another immovable barrier to the Raiders staying in Oakland. There are numerous sensible locations for the team to build a new home. A move to another state is irrational. The Bay Area is one of the largest and most diverse metropolitan areas in the country. Oakland is one of the most diverse cities by most any measure, it is chromatic.
The rival 49ers moved to Silicon Valley, far from its namesake. The Raiders are the closest proximity to all the world-class tourist destinations in San Francisco. By BART or car, Oakland airport and the coliseum complex, is closer for visitors to S.F. than the 49ers home base in Silicon Valley. All the visiting team fans and can still stay in San Francisco and take public transit to the game without much effort. For the football fan, keeping the Raiders in Oakland allows you to bring family, friends or business associates to experience a pro football game (and baseball the same weekend if the time of year is right) and visit all the renowned San Francisco sites.
As a bonus, downtown Oakland, Jack London Square and Oakland Chinatown are equally entertaining on a game day or any day. For all those who think Oakland is an unsafe or a dull place, make a visit, see for yourself what it’s like. A dynamic city, great food, electric night life, street festivals, an urban lake and park space are all easy to access. The views from the Oakland Hills is the definition of the “million dollar” view. On any day of the year, the Golden Gate Bridge shrouded in fog or a golden sunshine filled skyline view of downtown San Francisco is second to none. Oakland is beautiful; town pride is splashed across the city.
- Las Vegas is an amazing city. It is the entertainment capital of the world. My Dad lives in Vegas. When I visit it is always as great time. Las Vegas does not need the Raiders. Vegas has so much to offer, a glittering oasis in the middle of a vast desert, it is like no other city in the world. Their new stadium is going to be an excellent facility for Super Bowls, NCAA championships in football, basketball, exhibition matches for Latin and European football clubs, highlight national televised major sports events, (think Yankees vs. Red Sox, or Lakers vs. Celtics), all-star games, MMA, soccer, motorsports, the list goes on. The stadium will be a draw no matter what or who’s name is emblazoned on the marquee. Some cities may not like the idea Vegas be a de facto home for the Super Bowl or All-Star contests, consider the alternative. Would Dallas or Miami prefer to lose their football teams to save the occasional Super Bowl host city duties? I don’t think so. The championship games could continue to rotate to other cities. Vegas is an excellent location. The story of the Las Vegas Golden Knights is a sports story for the ages. The fans are passionate about their hockey team. They were forged in the desert oasis.
I doubt there’s a Knights fan that is OK with the team deciding to move. Some may scoff at the proposition. It’s happened before, Seattle Pilots (MLB) moved to Milwaukee re-named the Brewers after one season, Kansas City Scouts (NHL) moved to Denver after two seasons, L.A. Chargers moved to San Diego, after their inaugural season (now relocated back to L.A. after 50 plus seasons). Regardless, fan to fan understand the catastrophic loss to Oakland. Understand, it already happened to us once. Now the team and city can’t come together to prevent it happening to us again, yet. Vegas, you don’t need the Raiders. You have world class music, theater, dining, hotels, shopping, gaming and are primed to be the undisputed “big game” city the world over. We Raider fans will happily visit, spend our tourist dollars to see our elite players in pro bowl games, Super Bowl games, the occasional marquee showdown against a division rival (similar to NFL games played in Mexico City and London), and be in solidarity to your Golden Knights being home grown for decades to come.
- The alternate if the Raiders leadership won’t make amends with Oakland and save our team, for the fans, for the community there is always a buyer. An NFL franchise has a line out the door and around the corner for buyers. The Bay Area is home to 18 “Fortune 500” companies. Tech giants, Alphabet (Google), Intel, Facebook, and Oracle (the former Warriors arena name sponsor) and thriving tech companies like Pandora (headquartered in Oakland), corporate titans, Wells Fargo and Chevron all call the Bay Area home. The tech world has proved its ability to succeed in professional sports, “shark”, Mark Cuban (Dallas Mavericks), Steve Ballmer (Los Angeles Clippers) and Paul Allen’s family (Seahawks).
There are also scores of local investors with deep pocketbooks living off the news wire radar. Professional athletes are a natural fit as well, Michael Jordan, Mario Lemieux, Venus and Serena Williams all have financial interest in pro franchises. Athletes locally raised or with Bay Area ties will make up an excellent ownership team, Rickey Henderson, Marshawn Lynch, Gary Payton, C.C. Sabathia, Tiger Woods, Ken Dorsey, Natalie Coughlin, and Langston Walker to name a few. Include entertainers, Sheila E, Carlos Santana, Todd Shaw (AKA Too Short), Billie Joe Armstrong, Mr. Jackson (AKA Ice Cube), James Hetfield, the incomparable women of En Vogue, lest we forget Mr. Burrell (Hammer don’t hurt’em). The pool of prominent citizens is deep and abundant. And some pretty stratospheric A-list entertainers too, Tom Hanks, a long time Oakland ambassador, Jessica Alba, and Guy Fieri. The star power is evidence Raider Nation is one of the brightest in all pro sports fandom. Let’s put the word out, get the stars aligned to shine above the Oakland skies.
If there isn’t a viable ownership group, making the Raiders a community owned franchise like the Green Bay Packers is a strong option. The fans/investors proved championship caliber football can be achieved by a team without a private ownership group. The Raiders are well suited for such an enterprise. Oakland, if it were an island to itself is populous enough to qualify as an NFL city. According to the US Census, the city’s population is larger than Cleveland, New Orleans, Buffalo and Green Bay. Reality, NFL cities include the surrounding metro area, which makes sense. The home cities for all pro sports franchises draw fan bases from the greater region. Considering the region, where the Raiders live, it’s in the top 10 metro areas by population, making Oakland an ideal location for an NFl team. The Raiders also have a long-standing natural rivalry in pro sports, the Bay Area, and the Southern California region is balanced, two NFL teams in each metropolis. Moving the Raiders would upset that historic balance.
Any of the above ideas are the beginning of sensible options to achieve the greater goal. Integrating any one with another idea, for example a new stadium for the team and say, community ownership is very possible. For example, a third-party investor group building and owning a stadium with rights to use for other events beyond NFL schedules is a solve with respect to Oakland city leaders unwilling to budge on local government financing.
The Raiders fans, particularly the local fans have been lulled into a state of lethargy. All the years of the Davis family threatening to move the team to various cities and squabbling with the city. Lawsuits are thrown around. It’s become a situation of one ups-man-ship. Oakland leadership is no better by suing the team and the NFL. A business being sued elicits a not so friendly attitude to reconciliation. Let bygones be bygones.
We the Raider fans, Raider Nation have been loyal, passionate fans from all walks of life, ethnicities, geographic backgrounds, we come together on game days knowing the opposing team brings their “A” game because the legend of the Raiders means something across the league. The mystique of the Raiders is because of Oakland, the pirate logo, the “Black Hole”, the tailgating before the games. These characteristics known around the world could not have happened anywhere except Oakland.
No other place can replicate how the history of the Oakland Raiders has contributed to the popularity and community bonding our team brings. The same can be said of the Philadelphia Eagles or the Chicago Bears, no one could fathom these storied teams moving. The fans would not allow it, neither will we.
The Raiders are worth making a grand last effort to keep the team in our hometown. We show our commitment to a team that bluntly put out a sub-par product, possibly on purpose. Maybe a nefarious attempt to make a future re-location not so bothersome to the locals. Such is speculation yet, not out of the realm of reason. The cumulative record of the Raiders over the last 10 years would make a lot of fans change loyalty. Not Raider Nation. We support the Silver and Black because we know the legacy of the team, we know there are going to be brighter days ahead, because we band together to stand up for what’s right. We believe in the ebbs and flows, and we are smart enough to recognize once a championship team, the heights of success are absolutely, achievable. The Raiders franchise belongs in Oakland.
NFL teams are a rarity. Ranking the value of pro football teams, the Raiders are a comfortable, #18 out of #32. An estimated value near $2,000,000,000 . Billion with a “B”. Interestingly the same report notes the debt to value of the Raiders is tied at the second highest of all NFL teams at 33%, in a tie with Atlanta. Only the L.A. Rams is a higher debt to value, understandably because the owner is building a brand-new world-class stadium that will rival any pro sports arena the world over.
Considering this information, does the Davis family really need to wreck a community? $2B will buy their family interest in another franchise or a mountain top castle if that’s what excites their wants. To Mr. Davis, you may or may not be aware, your actions are reviled by most of the Raider Nation. It doesn’t have to go down that way. By selling or working diligently to preserving the Oakland Raiders, your reputation will be exalted in the hearts and minds of Raiders fans. Many fans have and will disparage your decision to move our team however consider all the good will a change of heart will make on tens of thousands of people, families, children, people you will never meet. We will be thankful you chose to keep our Raiders in Oakland.
To all the Raiders fans and sports fans at large who support keeping the Raiders in Oakland share your stories, what going to a pro sports event means to you. How the Raiders family, players, employees have impacted your life for the better or why the Raiders staying home matters to you? When we stand united for a worthy cause, a civil, well organized and impassioned citizenry can make the impossible possible.
Respectfully-
An Oakland Raiders fan
submitted by joshb33071 to oakland [link] [comments]
lakers vs warriors vegas odds video
Lakers vs. Warriors odds, line: Christmas Day NBA picks, predictions from Vegas expert on 11-4 run Former Vegas sportsbook director Micah Roberts is on an NBA hot streak. The Golden State Warriors have already shown this season that they could be back on the path to finish in the playoffs this season after missing out last term. We could learn more about their chances in the Western Conference as they come up against the reigning NBA champions. Warriors at Lakers Schedule. When: Monday 18 th January 2021, 10:00pm ET Miami at Las Vegas NFL Odds - The Miami Dolphins (9-5) visit the Las Vegas Raiders (7-7) ... Odds & Props Here... ARTICLE Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors NBA Odds, Expert Picks & Predictions. Saturday, February 08, 2020 by Liev Jackson Los Angeles Lakers (38-12) vs Golden State Warriors (12-40) Time: 8:30 PM ET Date: Saturday ... LIVE SCORES & ODDS. NBA Basketball Odds: NHL Hockey Odds: NCAA Basketball Odds: Boxing Odds: UFC / MMA Odds: TODAY'S PROPS PREDICTIONS. NBA - Nets vs Pistons; NBA - Rockets vs Pelicans; NBA - Celtics vs Jazz; NBA - 76ers vs Kings; NHL - Lightning vs Predators; NHL - Ducks vs Knights; CB - Arkansas vs Kentucky; CB - Texas vs Kansas State; CB - W ... The Golden State Warriors will face the Los Angeles Lakers on Monday, Jan. 18, 2021 at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, California. Vegas Insider provides all the betting odds, predictions and picks for this NBA Western Conference matchup between the Pacific Division foes. Lakers vs. Warriors odds, line: 2020 NBA picks, Feb. 8 predictions from computer model on 34-18 run The SportsLine Projection Model has simulated Saturday's Lakers vs. Warriors matchup 10,000 times. Get Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors historic matchup records and real-time lines and odds before placing your next bet. William Hill Sportsbook lists Los Angeles as an 8.5-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 225 in the latest Lakers vs. Warriors odds. Before making any Warriors vs. Lakers picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model. Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Lakers Odds - Monday January 18 2021. Live betting odds and lines, betting trends, against the spread and over/under trends, injury reports and matchup stats for bettors. Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Lakers 01/18/2021 NBA Odds, Preview and Prediction. January 18, 2021. By Shane. ... Preview and Prediction UFC Vegas 18: Overeem vs Volkov Main Card Odds and Predictions Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs 02/03/2021 NBA Odds, ...
lakers vs warriors vegas odds top
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lakers vs warriors vegas odds
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